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Monday, August 2, 2010

Monday updates

The Summation Index is no longer waning as it was last week, and printed a bar that looks to be accelerating once again to the upside, this is supportive of the bullish option!!!
The Dollar broke down, and lost support of the last bullish Fib fan, not good for the Dollar bulls!!!
After the close, WOW, the first trading day in August, and the count worked as exactly as planned. This is where the bears need to step up and prove their case, or the bulls are going to have a 1-2, 1-2 up in the works. My primary count is still the Ending Diagonal, with the final 5th wave up almost completed. A break below 1088.01 would violate the bullish count, so a break below this level will be huge for the bears.
The SPX did make another set of higher highs today, but is now having to contend with resistance from the old high of 1131.23 to make its first major higher high. Over-all the short-term trend is up, and will get a nice bonus if it does take out that older high. Tomorrow will be important for the bears, after the full five waves up today, we should see either a correction, or an impulse wave down. This will be important for determining the longer term trend, as a corrective wave will imply that the bullish option has the odds in its favor, and an impulsive sell-off will be gold for the bears, as an impulsive wave only follows an impulsive wave (of the same degree) after a trend change, or in this case, a top being put in. The SPX was close enough to finishing up that 5th wave today, odds are it will likely get wrapped up in over-night trading.
Breadth for the day started very strong for the bulls, but waned as the close approached, and closed at 5.67:1, a very strong day for the bulls and another day of volume extremes, with the bullish volume accounting for 91.98% of the total volume, but again, the total volume for the day was low. One thing that would give this rally some real legs would be having the total volume increasing, not decreasing, and is one reason why I feel more comfortable with a short-term bearish view. If the SPX was truly in a 3rd wave up, volume should be increasing, along with breadth and neither are increasing at this time.
Interesting side note, on the above chart, the RSI still has not exceeded its high reading made back on July 13th, and has been diverging since, that is, not making higher highs in step with the price action. This is just yet another sign that the strength of this rally is weakening when it should be increasing for the bullish option.
The Trend Finder at the close still had all of its indicators in the buy mode, but a couple of them are showing weakness, and could rapidly switch to sell signals on any sort off sell-off.
After Stock Charts updates their daily charts I will post any that are interesting or have important changes to them.
****I wish to thank everybody for their support from last month, it turned into one of the busiest in terms of traffic, and the numbers of hours spent working on keeping the blog updated with fresh ideas and updated charts, unfortunately contributions were at there lowest of the year, hopefully this month will turn that around. So, Please donate if you have found this blog to have been helpful to you or your trading. I would hate to slow down on the blogging because I do enjoy sharing with others, but income barely exceeded expenses last month, and at this rate it is hard to justify spending hundreds of hours working on the blog this month. Please keep this blog going, we have already lost two excellent EW bloggers last month because they could not justify spending their time for free.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
10:04, I have had a micro-count going on this chart for the last hour or so, though it would be worth-while to post it on the blog, as the count is playing out very nice. Reminder, any price action above the 1152 level will invalidate the Ending Diagonal count, 1-2-3-4-and currently in 5.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
9:07 There is enough data that I added a new short-term bullish fan, if the SPX breaks below this fan, it will be the first sign on this chart the SPX is breaking down and odds really increase that a top was put in.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:00, Added a micro-count to the chart, also, the Trend Finder now has all indicators showing bullish signals. 100% bullish.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:17, The SPX has broke out of the bearish Fib fan, and it possibly could break-up into a more bullish fan.
7:10, The SPX is challanging the 20 week MA, at 1119.92, if it breaks above, it has clear sailing on the weekly chart until the 200 week MA comes into play, up at 1210.01. The indicators are also going bullish, still waiting to see if the MACD, and its Histo-gram go bullish.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:03, The SPX continues to gap higher, breaking above the 200 day MA soon after the open.
Current breadth is close to 10:1, advancers!!!
6:49, The SPX had a large gap up, at the open, following the rallies in the over-seas markets. The trend does remain bullish, but the SPX still needs to make a higher high, above 1120.95 to keep that trend going. Hope you read Saturday's update, as that is my primary count.
The Trend Finder had two, of the three sell signals go bullish this morning, so now the trend is at 75% bullish.

1 comment:

  1. Michael I'm looking at your SPX daily chart and see the possibility of an ABC with C an ED. Your blue 1 would be A, followed by B. Where you have blue 3 could be wave 'a' of a larger ED. Just thoughts.