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Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Tuesday updates

Investors are piling into the shorter-term treasuries, as evidenced by the sharp drop in rates.
Once the Dollar broke below that last green bullish Fib fan, it has gone into a major sell-off. The first decent sign that the sell-off is slowing down would be breaking up into the less bearish part of the fan.
After the close, BORING!!!, A day of consolidation with anemic volume that would fit best as a "B" wave, or maybe a 4th wave. Also possible that the 5th is in, and we were drawing out a 1-2, 1-2 down, but I am not at all confident on that count, nor of the 4th wave count because of the amount of time spent in this corrective wave, along the failure of the impulsive up channel this morning. The Bulls are now stuck in that 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 up count that has haunted the bears for the last few months, the count that never seems to materialize. I did trace out the three most likely paths, and at this time, have no short-term favorite count. The Indicators on the next larger time frame (60 minute) chart have peaked, and rolled over to a sell, but the indicators on the Trend Finder all remain bullish. It would not take much selling pressure at all to start having them roll over to a sell position though.
The Bollinger bands remained very tight at the close, so maybe we will get a large gap up or down at tomorrows open as the SPX breaks out of the bands.
The 200 day MA still remains as support with the 20 week MA, which closed at 1119.99. The SPX never did make any important higher highs, or lower lows today so that trend remains bullish until the SPX can make that lower low, which would be breaking below 1088.01, but we should first see the trendline from July 7th give way as an early warning.
On the top side, 1131.23 is the important level to exceed for the bullish trend, that would open the gates up for 1173.57 as the next level of resistance.
Breadth finished the day at 1.538:1, with some of the lowest volume of the year, still waiting for those numbers to update after the close just to see how low they really were.
***The number of people willing to step-up and help out by supporting this blog are dismal, I am collecting the names of all those that have contributed in the past just in case I decide to go a different direction with the blog, they will all be rewarded!!!
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10:15, The Bollinger Bands are really getting tight, and this normally precedes a large move!!!
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7:47 The SPX has moved into a less bullish part of both fans, and a break below 1100 would free the SPX from all the short-term fans. That 1100 number keeps popping up as important support for the bulls to hold.
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7:24, The SPX has started the day off with an impulsive wave down that can be counted as a 1st wave down, or wave "a" down. The biggest change on the chart is that the short-term channel did get broke to the downside, this could be a early warning sign that the mini rally from last week has been wrapped up, the biggie will be a break of the larger channel line from July 7th, and that would occur close to the 1100 level, and the ultimate would be a break below 1088.01
***I wish to Thank the four people that stepped up, and supported the blog yesterday through their contributions, there is still time to add your name to the list and help out by submitting a donation!!!!

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