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Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Tuesday updates

If the SPX follows the path the BKX has already laid out, the bulls are in BIG trouble!!!
The Russell also closed right on the trendline, if we have any sort of follow-thru tomorrow, a lot of technical damage will occur.

The daily chart is definitely on the bearish side, with a cross of the 20 and 50 MA, the MACD still on a full sell and trending down, and the STO and RSI both, in sell mode, and still not bottomed out nor showing any divergence.
The sell-off this afternoon bounced right on the last bullish Fib fan line of support, this is one line that once broke could really get the selling accelerating to the down-side, and is also the bulls last chance to get the ball back.
After the close, The bears pushed the market down right to the breaking point, or else the bulls stepped in right before the SPX broke down. If we have any sort of follow-thru tomorrow with this selling, things will get very bearish as some strong support levels will be broke.
Breadth was unusually low today, closing at 3.33:1, decliners, even though the SPX loss 1.42%. Seeing the breadth this low compared to the size of the sell-off is not very bearish, and gives the bulls a great opportunity to take the ball back tomorrow and run with it. With the SPX not breaking below 1114.96, both the bullish and bearish counts are still in a 1-2, 1-2, with the possibility that we also could be in an "B" wave from the 1065 low making all the probabilities about even until we make a major lower low, or higher high to void some of the optional counts.

12:26, The Euro is just getting hammered, breaking down below 1.22. Also the RSI still has not bottomed, nor shown any signs of diverging yet, pointing to lower lows still to come.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:00, BTW, The SPX is now testing the 20 week MA at 1138.48, another support the bears need to capture!!!
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:38, Added a bullish Fib fan now that there is enough data to set one. This is one fan the bears need to see get broke to the downside, ASAP!!!
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:25, With this morning rally, that made a short-term higher high, the bearish 2nd wave up has retraced 57.49%. Odds start favoring the bullish count if we surpassed the 62% level, or break above 1152. Because of that minor higher high this morning, the down trend now stands in jeopardy until we break above 1173.57 to make it go bullish, or start making lower lows on the way down to 1114.96 to confirm that the trend is down, for now caution is warranted for bulls, and bears.
7:20, Add another gap to the list that needs to be filled, LOL!!!

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