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Monday, May 17, 2010

Monday updates

After the close, What a weird day. The SPX did make a lower low, before reversing to close near the high of the day, but the trend still remains bearish as no higher highs were made. I had to adjust the count mid-day after we got those five waves down, after the following retracement went above 1125. The new count does fit better now that the cash SPX has a full five waves down from 1073.57, instead of a truncated 5th and the negative divergence on the RSI also supports this count (being the iii of 3 wave making an extreme reading on the RSI). Retracement levels for this 2nd wave up are 1137-51 with some heavy resistance around 1147 (red dashed line). There is also a bullish partial inverse head and shoulders building, with the low today, marking the head. The wave action off of the low today is also corrective looking with lots of over-lapping waves in what is shaping up to be an expanding triangle.
Breadth for the day was starting to get very bearish, approaching 10:1, decliners, before the reversal closing at 1.45:1, decliners.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!! 7:02, The SPX still has not broke out of the bearish Fib fans, but are in the least bearish part of the fan. Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!

6:45, The futures did make a lower low before the SPX cash opened, fixing that truncated 5th from Friday. 1155.43 is 61% retracement, which is where the odds start increasing that this is not a 2nd wave up. The Euro also took a beating before the open, down into the 1.22 range.

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