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Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Wednesday updates

This is a brief update from yesterday morning that Roy did on the SPX and the DAX, you can check it out by clicking here

This Leading Diagonal bearish count is also on the table, it has a nice contracting wedge shape to it, and the 1st wave is longer then the 3rd, and as long as the trendlines hold, and the 5th wave is smaller then the 3rd, it is a valid option. This count would keep the SPX range bound for the next week, plus, as it finishes up the final 4th and 5th wave, and then the SPX would retrace in a corrective pattern for 3-4 days before things would get back to bearish, in a 1-2, 1-2 down count.

After the close, Mr, Market threw the bears a curve ball today, but the market never moves in a straight line, even as most people would prefer it to. The rally in the last half of the day started after we did have five complete waves down, so it should of not taken everyone by surprise. In this chart the labels have it now in a 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 down. I start getting very suspicious when this many sets of nested 1-2's show up, because it normally turns out that there is another way to count the series of waves. This is either going to be a VERY bearish market next week, or this count is wrong, and the Leading Diagonal count on the chart up above will turn-out to be the correct count. And there is always the bullish option that was posted this morning.

The SPX did make some major lower lows today, and never made any significant higher highs, so the trend stays as down. 1148.66, and 1094.15 are the upper, and lower levels that will either confirm the trend, or change it.

Breadth ended the day at 3.65:1, decliners.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:51, The SPX is accelerating to the downside, taking out the low of 1103.84 (red dashed line), and also the 200 day MA at 1012.12. The next support is at 1094.15 at the low on May 7th.
* Breadth update, 9.93:1, decliners, with down volume accounting for 83% of the total volume

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:04, The long term bullish Fib fan is now in jeopardy as the SPX is flirting with the last line of support.

7:58, Here is a weekly chart with some support and resistance levels, as well as the major Moving averages numbers. Notice the MACD is now on a sell.
*Breadth update, 5.42:1
And here is the Daily chart with the MA's. Notice the 200 day MA at 1102.12 is support.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:39, The SPX did make a lower low once it broke below 1114.96, the next level to keep the down trend going is 1103.84, followed by 1094.15. On the upside, 1148.66 would be the level now, that would put the short-term bearish trend into major jeopardy.Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:27, Was able to add another set of bearish fans, there are now no, short-term bullish fans supporting the SPX in this time frame
*Breadth update- 6.63:1, decliners

7:17, The Bullish count is still viable until the SPX breaks below 1065.79, and has to stay on the table. That said, we did make a major lower low today, confirming the trend is still down!!!

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