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Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Wednesday updates

This is an idea I have had for quite awhile, but have kept quiet about. With all the double zig-zags contained in these waves, why not the whole stucture working out to be a double zig-zag, a pefect fractal of itself. This is the main reason I have keep that count of the a-b-c, from the bottom at 666.

The SPX has ran up against resistance on the Gray fib fan, this is one fan that I have confidence in because it has been well respected in the past. It does not mean the SPX can not advance further, but in the past the price action has worked its way higher, but at a slower pace following along the line, and a break-up thru the fan line just makes the market more bullish and provides support down the line. This is one line the bears need to hold!!!

After the close, The trend continues to be up, as we made another higher high today, without making any lower lows. On the counts, the possibilities are starting to really get numerous, and since Elliott Wave is based on probabilities, I see no one count that is standing out as one that I have much confidence in. Until we have a break down in a larger corrective wave, or major sell-off to eliminate, or confirm some of the counts, I just see no signs that we are topping yet in this rally.

Breadth for the day ended at 2.44:1, advancers on average volume and the highest levels of this week. The 4 day average on breadth has been increasing since Monday, but still nowhere near the levels we saw earlier in this rally. This does help out in determining if we are in a 3rd wave up, and with the breadth this low that possibility is also low, it looks more like a 5th wave of some sort.

The RSI is also continuing to increase on the daily charts and is at its highest levels in at least two years, unfortunately, the RSI usually peaks, then diverges before a top is put in, so there is still plenty of upside for the price action to go since we still have not reached a peak in the RSI, although that is very likely close to happening.

Levels for tomorrow are a minor low at 1153.72, and an important low at 11.41.45, which would signal a trend change is likely, or in progress.

7:36, The VIX finally made a new low this morning with a gap down open. It is still in over-sold territory according to the STO, and RSI.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:08, Three options going on here starting with the bearish, this could be an overthrow for the 5th wave of either wave C, or the 3rd, in which case there should be some sort of a sell-off, a minor one for a 4th wave, or a major one for a "B", "X", or something even more bearish. Or, the very bullish option, 1-2, 1-2, up combination that I was talking about yesterday. With the increases in volume and breadth this is a real possibility and should leave little doubt if we see even higher volumes and breadth readings in the next couple of days as the point of recognition approaches ( the middle of iii, of 3).
Click here for an updated real time chart!!!
The SPX has moved even further into bullish territory according to the fib fans.


  1. Sorry to remain bullish, but I still see 1185, possibly 1210 as first Gann targets and should be reached at or on March 23rd. 1380/1400 also beckons.

    Longer term the SPX might make an attempt at 2200 in the 2012/14 time frame (probably 2014).

    The shorter term pattern is likely an ABC as the first part of a large ED.

    Good analysis as always Michael, and worth a daily read.

  2. Good analysis!
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