Live Blog Chat-room 2

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

After the close, I need to say this with my fingers holding my nose, but, the trend remains up, as no lower lows were made, and a higher high was. The SPX did close up near trendline resistance from the channel line. There are now divergences showing in most time frames and the market is looking very weak and in the need of correction at the minimum.
I have seen no evidence now that the 4th wave in green has started, the 3rd wave just keeps growing larger but now it is more proportion as the 3rd wave is longer then the 1st.
Breadth for the day was 2.72:1, on average volume.
Levels for the trend are now 1141.45, for making a lower low and putting the current up trend in jeopardy.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
9:21, updated the count to fit the channel, this is looking much better then what I had, BTW, it is also possible that we have a completed 3 wave count from the low of 1044.50 (the A-B-C) and if so a major sell-off would confirm that!!! Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
9:06, Updated the channel lines and now I am very suspicous about the count on the upper part of the channell, the proportions are out of whack for the green 3-4. Also the move up today looks much more impulse, then a corrective "B" wave it needs for the 4th wave triangle

8:44, the wave count appears to be close to finishing, the only red thumb I see is that green wave 4 does not look right, it is a sharper correction, and not a sideways triangle that would indicate that the rally is wrapping up. It is also possible that could be a 2nd wave in an extended 3rd (labeled with a green i-ii instead of the green 3-4 I have in the above chart). The trend however remains up until we start making lower lows at 1141.45.

Click here for an updated real time chart!!!
8:40, The SPX is up against Fib fan line resistance.


  1. There seems to be a number of truncations in your wave count with regards to the 2nd waves with C not finishing past A - is this correct? I thought this was supposed to be rare?

  2. the first set, I agree, the next two though are contracting. the whole 2nd wave there is a mess where no one count fits perfect.

  3. thx - are you of the same mindset of EWI that this is a primary wave 2 top? Also any thoughts on other mkts such as oil - think it just finished an expanded flat for a wave 2 (or B) with and ED 5th wave for its C - dont think the mkt moves to 1175 or higher if oil is moving lower say into the $60 range - any thoughts?

  4. Market up again
    Beginning to feel this EW stuff is just pie in the sky, but then again this is the max pain for a bear (such as myself) and maybe we might turn a corner some time? Just punched through 1158 S&P so no double top there. Looks like S&P 1500 is next stop - I am going all in I just cannot sit back any longer.

  5. market doesnt have any impulsive wave michael... maybe internals... but this is an ABC... and will finish if goes up than 1167....

    thats the end... everywhere bears capitulating... thats it...

    look at my charts... the bonds thats the key... ive been showing... is impulsive... perfect retraces... we will start to see some action on bonds...

    sp500 = 990/1120 soon ... and there we will think about future

  6. creepy
    Please post a link to your charts

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  8. So for however many months I've been reading this blog, you've been completely biased to the downside. This is not how you trade elliott wave folks. You need to always keep in mind alternate counts and be flexible.