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Thursday, March 18, 2010

Thursday updates

This is a chart of the VIX, with the fib fans that I have had in my public charts, but never have posted on the blog. This very ugly looking at the moment but is coming down close to support at 15.82, the low back on May 2008. This needs to hold for any sell-off in the equities markets to be possible.
After the close, The trend remains unchanged as we never made any lower lows, or higher highs today and until it does, the trend will continue as up. I did eliminate the 1-2, 1-2, up count and with all the consolidation going on today the best count that fits is a 4th wave, but I am unsure to which degree right now. The longer the consolidation goes on, the higher the likelihood becomes it is of the larger degree.
Breadth for the day was 1.355:1, decliners on typical volume for this week. Again this suggests a 4th wave correction, and a flat day. These are just the type of days that burn-off any over-bought conditions clearing the way for higher highs.
Levels for tomorrow are still the same as yesterday's, and are a minor low at 1153.72, and an important low at 11.41.45, which would signal a trend change is likely, or in progress.
The SPX is riding above the lower fib fan line of the first chart I posted this morning and closed right smack in the middle of the Bollinger bands in the chart down below.
The a-b-c count I have going on the chart above is also still a very valid count and can even be broken down further as a double zig-zag, and is well worth keeping on the radar.

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10:58, The Bollinger bands are starting to tighten up, usually a good sign of consolidation going on, normally in a 4th wave of some sort. In other words, a boring day, until it breaks out.

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7:32, This is what I have this morning for the more likely counts, still waiting for a decent correction to appear to help confirm one of the counts. So far, no higher highs, nor lower lows have been made, so the trend continues as up.
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  1. The only dates I have of any significance are: March 23rd, April 1st, May 20th, June 2nd. If this is an ED, wave 'B' is likely to be a sharp ABC between March 23rd and April 1st, give or take a day or two. A 'B' wave might want to overlap the action at 1110. Such a drop will have all the bears shouting 'P2' but they will be wrong as the market will subsequently rise 20% in waves 'C', 'D' and 'E'.