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Friday, March 19, 2010

Friday updates

After the close, things played out as planned for the day, and that always makes a happy EW camper. The trend continues as up, even with the sell-off today we did not break below the first minor lower low of 1153.72, and are still aways from 1141.45 where the up trend would become in very serious jeopardy and most likely change to neutral or down, depending on how it played out with the momentum numbers.
The SPX has most likely traced out only the first wave down of the 4th. as a nice looking double zig-zag, leaving the question if that was the whole 4th wave down, or only the wave A of the 4th. I am leaning more to the A of 4 option because of alteration from the 2nd wave would make the 4th a flat, or a triangle, and we are still short in the amount of time the SPX has spent in a 4th wave correction compared to the time of the 2nd wave.
Upside targets for this rally are starting to converge around 1200-1225. Upper trendline resistance from the October, and January highs come into play at around 1200. If you measure the length of the 1st wave (67.92), and add it to today's low (assuming this is the low point of the 4th wave) wave 5 equaling wave 1 would have a top at 1223.28, and lastly, 61.8% retracement to the highs of '07 is at 1228.74.
Breadth for the day ended at 2.38:1, decliners, on slightly higher volume then yesterday, neither of which is out of line for a 4th wave correction of this degree.
Levels I have been watching for the trend remain unchanged and are posted up above.
Note of interest, the VIX did manage to close that gap from a few days ago.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:16, The SPX is looking like it is now tracing out a fourth wave, this is a good thing as it helps to confirm the count I posted yesterday expecting a 4th wave, my confidence in this count has improved dramatically.

1 comment:

  1. 3 of 1-2-3-4-5 is to be the strongest in the count correct? So will the time and speed to 5 from 4 be shorter in duration and less impressive?
    Thanks for the great posts.
    I look forward to your reply.