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Monday, February 8, 2010

Monday updates

The Summation Index is really bearish now, the trend is clearly down, and it has solidly broke through support, and for you Head and Shoulder fans out there, it has also broke below the neckline.
The McClellan Oscillator is back in business, never having reached the "zero" line and with NO divergences, still bearish, and now has room to run to the downside.
Click here for an updated real time chart!!!
There was a good battle going on with the Fib fans today, and the bears definitely walked away the winners, solidly down below the last bullish fan.
After the close, Closing at the low of the day was the last thing the Bulls wanted to see. the prefered count I have going is the 2nd wave up completed, counting out as a double zig-zag, a-b-c-x-a-b-c. That retraced 44.31%, much more then required, and even larger then the retracement for the larger degree 2nd wave that topped on Feb. 2nd at 1104.73, with 42.02%. Also the micro waves down from the high today count out much better as a series of 1-2's, and look a lot more impulsive, rather then corrective.
I have an optional count in Gray on the chart I am watching, where only the "A" wave of the 2nd up was completed, but I do not have as much confidence in that playing out.
Breadth for the day was only 1.81:1 decliners, on low volume, enough for me to have a little faith in the optional count and keep it on my radar, as I would of liked to have seen the breadth higher at the end of the day to match the start of the 3rd wave down.
We made a higher high at the open, but then later made a lower low on the SPX, leaving the short-term trend slightly more bearish over-all.
FWIW, I kept my 75% short position over-night in Wall Street Survivor, and will add the other 25%, upon breaking below 1144.50, or will add if we make a short-term new high in the optional count.
Click here for a live, updated chart!!!
10:30, Here is an optional count for the 2nd wave up, from the chart below. In this chart, we still have the final "C" wave left to complete the 2nd wave up, before we start the 3rd wave down. Breaking below 1059.24, before making a new high would invalidate this count.
Click here for a live, updated chart!!!
10:19, Updated chart, I forgot to put a link on the chart below so you could see an updated chart. The double zig-zag count has been completed, and odds are we are in the 3rd wave down now.
FWIW, 8:50, I added 25% more shorts, now at 75% shorts, 25% cash.
8:20, I added 25% more in shorts in Wall Street Survivor, now have a total of 50% shorts, and 50% cash. 7:45, This 2nd wave retrace is starting to take on the look of a double zig-zag, a-b-c-x-a-b-c.
Click here for an updated real time chart!!!
6:50, A quiet open this morning, the SPX is still with-in the same set of bearish fans from Friday. 6:35, I went 25% short in Wall Street Survivor , since we were close to hitting the 38% retracement level, I will add more if we retrace further in anticipation of the 3rd wave down.

4 comments:

  1. Columbia... what does your intuition tell you..have we yet to complete C up of the double zig zag?

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  2. we have completed the 2nd wave up, I still would like to see some confirmation, like an increase in sell volume, and breadth that the 3rd wave down has started.

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  3. Yes, the volume suggests we are still in some sort of upwards correction (or part of a large sideways triangle). Higher volume would be preferred especially for a 3 of 3. Nice analysis as usual.

    Note that China and Hong Kong both need a marginal new low, then an ABC will have been completed in both markets (from the recent highs).

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  4. I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

    Lucy

    http://forextradin-g.net

    ReplyDelete