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Tuesday, February 9, 2010

After the close, What an ugly day to try and count the squiggles, so I gave up after the double zig-zag, but not before seeing the possibility of a contracting diagonal, then an expanding diagonal, then back to a double zig-zag. The important things are we were in a correction all day with over lapping waves, never did hit my upside target of 1083.40, retraced 57.74% of the 1st wave down, and all with-out breaking above the upper channel line. The micro count should become much clearer in the morning.
The most worrisome thing for me today has been watching the Breadth, which was above my comfort zone earlier in the day running 5.59:1, before slowly declining into the close to finish at 3.60:1 advancers, but with higher volume then yesterday. This is something to really keep an eye on. Having a follow through day tomorrow with increased volume and breadth would be Bullish, and most likely require a total reworking of the charts. It is possible to count this sell-off from 1150 as three waves down, and that means it could be a corrective wave down, with higher highs in the near-term future. The first early warning sign most likely will be a break through the upper channel line near 1083.
On the bear front, this 2nd wave up either completed this afternoon, or will so in the morning, then we can get on with the 3rd wave down. Hopefully the Dollar will play along and start gaining some strength this evening leading to higher highs for tomorrow.
FWIW, I held my 100% short position in Wall Street Survivor overnight, I set this trade up for the 3rd wave down, not for interday scalping.

Click here for a live, updated chart!!!
8:35, The Bollinger bands are starting to tighten up, and that usually leads to a large sharp move in the not so distant future, a break out of the consolidation pattern.
7:23,FWIW, I added the last 25% cash to my shorts in Wall Street Survivor, now 100% short in anticipation of the 3rd wave down, set stops at 1085, which would be the level that the upper trendline would be broken, causing me to have serious problems with the bearish count.
Click here for a live, updated chart!!!
6:58, The optional count came to bear fruit, after a higher high was made, invalidating the count of a series of 1-2's down. If wave "C" would equal wave "A" in length, 1083.40 would be the upside target. I am a little worried about the breadth though, much higher then I would like to see, currently 5.59:1, advancers. This is definitely something to keep an eye on, sustaining this for the duration of the day would make me very uncomfortable about the validity of bearish count, and might suggest that we had a corrective a-b-c down from the top of 1150.
* Side-note, the SPX made a higher high this morning, and the RSI did not, meaning there is a bearish divergence happening!!


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In then back out of the bullish fib fan this morning, with resistance from a bearish fan up around 1080.

8 comments:

  1. Columbia..quick ?.. can this C wave [up] have a A-B-C to it or a 1-5 sub wave count to it? As you can tell I am not an EW expert.

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  2. Kim, it needs to have a 5 count to be an a-b-c, zig-zag, "C" waves that count out as 3 waves, are part of a triangle, 3-3-3-3-3

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  3. Hey Mike,
    Looks like c might be painting an ED, now in its fifth wave?

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  4. Blankfiend, that count would violate a rule, that the 1st wave must be the longest.

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  5. Mike - good point. I am now more inclined to go with the double ZZ, much like Daneric has.

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  6. Man! I am lucky, I don't care about wave count.
    I do spreads on options and It's a sweet bread to eat...sweet and healthy

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  7. Did you know that you can create short links with BCVC and make money for every visit to your short links.

    ReplyDelete