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Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Tuesday Updates

7:11, Here is the updated MO chart, yesterday it was up at resistance, and the market sold-off, now it is on support. It will be interesting to see if it keeps respecting the trendlines, or break through the support. The pattern the MO has laid out reminds me of a "B" wave, in a contracting triangle, never making higher highs, nor lower lows. Maybe once we get a break-out we can finally establish the real direction of the short-term trend of the market!!
Asia is currently down 1% and the US futures are flat!!
After the close, Not a lot changed since I posted the charts earlier today, so I will wait until Stockcharts updates the daily charts to post anything that I find that my be interesting.
The market was definitely bearish today as the Dollar rallied. The VIX also opened gap up, but never broke above the trendline of resistance, nor closed the gap.
The counts I have going are still valid, but we did make a minor lower low when we broke below 1096.52. That puts the bullish trend in jeopardy. The levels for tomorrow are 1083.74, and 1110.56.
I am seeing lots of mixed signals again, might be a good time to think about being neutral until the trend becomes clearer.
Breadth for the day was only 2.25:1, decliners on average volume, not the amount one would expect for the size of the sell-off.
Click here for an updated Fib. fan chart!!!
9:16, Added a bearish fan, after the SPX broke down and out of the bullish fan.
Here is a comparision of some of the major indexes!!

The Dollar finally made a clear-cut higher high, breaking above $76, to $76.18. A break above the high at $77 would further confirm that the trend has turned bullish!!!

Click here for an updated SPX chart!!!
7:20, Updated bullish possibilities. 1083.74 can not be broken for the 1-2 up count to stay valid.

6:35, The SPX broke below the trendline of support from 666, if it does not recapture it quickly, it will become resistance. The VIX also opened gap up, as the Dollar moved higher this morning!!


  1. Hello Michael,

    thanks a lot for this very good charts. What is your opinion regarding Gold?

    Best to you,


  2. Hey Markus, I do not follow Gold's move everyday, but I believe that it tracks the Dollar, inversely. so if the Dollar bottomed, Gold topped!!!

  3. I don´t understand. Isn`t a C- wave suppose to be a 5 vawe sequence? So how can it be a double zigzag?


  4. Hi Jimbo, not all "C" waves are impulses. They can also be complex 3 counts. EWI even shows this complex pattern in their writings back in 2006. I have a PDF of the count if you wish to see it. Also Robert Balan shows it in his book, which BTW, you can download for free from this link.