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Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Wednesday Updates

5:37, Bonus chart!!, This is the daily SPX, and now is sporting a bearish cross of the MACD. But what caught my eye was how tight the Bollinger Bands are, actually even tighter then they were at the start of the sell-off back in September '08 and the tightest in at least the last two years.
4:26, The Bullish Percent Index is still dropping and diverging as less and less stocks are showing buy signals. It already has registered a sell signal with-in itself, by rising above the 70% level, then reversing down the required 6% and today made a fresh lower low. This is just one of the reasons I have been urging caution for any long term bullish outlook, something big is brewing, and it will not be bull friendly

4:20, The shorter term McClellan Oscillator went nowhere today, it is about as neutral as physically possible, in no recognizable trend and a reading of only 1.36.


After the close, The SPX managed to close green this afternoon, after making a lower low, but it was also able to make a higher high, intraday.
One of the counts, the 1-2 down bearish option took a hit today, as wave 4 entered the 1st wave. the only bearish option now would to have 1-2, 1-2, down. Unlikely in my view. One other option, the a-b-c-d-e expanding triangle "B", also is losing steam with-out making a low below 1083.74, for the final "E" wave.
The only viable option I see is the 1-2 up possibility, and that can also be supported by the RSI, which finally broke through trendline resistance and the oversold conditions of the Full STO on the hourly charts. The VIX never did manage to break-out above the channel and sold-off right before the close.
Levels to watch for making important short-term highs, and lows are 1110.56, and 1119.13 on the topside, and, 1085.89, and ,1083.75 on the bottom.
Breadth for the day turned out bullish with advancers leading decliners 1.22:1, on average volume.
Click here for an undated Bollinger Band chart!!!
10:00, The Bollinger Bands are starting to get tight again, which normal signals in a large move coming soon.

Click here for an updated chart!!!
7:48, the SPX broke up and out of the Bullish wedge, still leaving the 1-2 up count on the table.
FWIW, I went short-term bullish at 1090 in WSS with stops set at 1087.
Click here for an updated Fib fan chart!!!


6:54, The SPX has stayed solidly in the most bearish part of the fan so far this morning.


6:42, with the market down this morning, after the sell-off in Asia, the SPX looks to be building a Bullish wedge. Breaking 1083.74 would invalidate my 1-2 up count, and leave either the "e of B" option, or even the possibility that we already have a top in.

4 comments:

  1. the abcde count is my primary count at the moment

    but the E must go lower then the C

    so i expect a lower low soon, once that low is in i will look to cover some shorts.

    good luck

    ReplyDelete
  2. and that's a good thang.... lol....

    oh asia.... don't mess with my count....

    ReplyDelete