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Monday, December 7, 2009

Monday Updates

This really sums up the last month, going nowhere quickly!!!
After the close update, Boring day, that fits in perfectly for a "B" wave. The SPX did manage to make a higher high, but it was just a minor high. Still believe we have more upside available and a new high in the works, but I am still bearish. There is just not much reward at these levels to off-set the risk of the market truncating before the waves are finished. The sell-off could be quite large compared to the miniscule amount on the upside. I still expect this to end in a series of a-b-c's just as we have been experiencing for the last three weeks.
Breadth for the day was only 1.21:1, advancers on low volume. FWIW, the Russell turned out the strongest index again today.
The Bollinger Bands were starting to tighten at the close, but not to the levels we were seeing last week.
Levels to watch are 1110.56, and 1119.13 on the topside, and 1096.52, and 1083.74 on the bottom side. These are the recent highs and lows, that breaking could signal a change, or confirm the direction of the trend, which currently is bullish.

11:09, This is a cleaned up chart from down below with how an Ending Diagonal could play out, a series of a-b-c's to make a final high, most likely with a throw-over. This is also my prefered option.

This is the longer term chart, to go with the shorter term one below, and how it could play out as an ending Diagonal, never really making any substantial moves up towards 1200, but running flat between 1100-1130 for the next couple of weeks in a series of a-b-c's, counted as 3-3-3-3-3 before topping in a quick throw over!!!

Click here for an updated SPX chart, Please Vote!!!
7:17, This is what I am carrying for a count, it is a bullish count with the likelihood of making new highs. We need to break below 1083.74 to invalidate this bullish option, and so far the trend is up, with higher highs being made. 1119.13 is the first level of resistance, and 1096.52 is first support.

7:47, I added a second count in RED, where the 1st wave could be counted as an a-b-c, it would make more sense with that higher high being part of wave 1, and not an expanding a-b-c, for the 2nd wave. Also it would fit in with the larger picture of an ending diagonal, 3-3-3-3-3 in the works!!

Click here for an updated VIX chart!!!
The VIX opened gap up this morning, but was stopped by overhead resistance. The long-term Channel/trend line is approaching slowly but surely, the VIX needs to break-out, and stay out to have any meaningful trend changes take place

Click here for an updated Fib chart!!!
Here is the latest Fib. fan chart, with the fan updated with the newest high made on Friday. Breaking below the last fan could signal that the trend has changed.
Futures on the ES mini were pretty flat last night, with no surprises for the open.

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