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Wednesday, December 2, 2009

After the bell, The SPX did make a new high, then retreated back to close pretty much flat. On the SPX I am neutral right now, I see two possibilities, we finished the wave up, and now we heading back down to start making lower lows breaking below 1086.25 would also confirm that, or we only finished the 1st wave of 5, with higher highs to come.
On the Russell, I am still bearish because it has yet to make a higher higher, after making a lower low.
The day was again filled with major divergences, and non-confirmations, the VIX never made a new low while the SPX and the DOW made new highs, and the DOW transports never made a new high, as the DOW did.
This topping process is dragging its feet along. The SPX even with the new high today is only 5 points higher, then it was two months ago.
The Bollinger Bands also continued to tighten into the close, so maybe we will see a large gap opening in the morning.
Breadth for the day was boring, coming in at 1.92:1 at the close on light volume.
Levels on the SPX worth watching are 1115.58 for the top, and 1086.25 for the bottom, signs of making higher highs, or lower lows.
9:12, The Bollinger Bands have tighened back up again, watch for a large move soon!!!



7:21, After the SPX made a new high, it eliminated some of the optional counts. Now things are a bit clearer. The most bullish option now would be that we are near the end of the 1st wave of "C" up. The other two options end the same, the end is very near, after the finish of this last wave.

On a side note, as the SPX and the DOW were making new highs, the VIX failed to confirm by making new lows!!

7:11, A new high was made on the SPX
7:03, here is the Russell, and it still has a bearish face on. It still has yet to make a higher high, after the last lower low was made. Currently the RSI is up against trendline resistance, and the Full STO is up in over-bought territory.

6:51, Here are the counts I am watching for, I warned you that there were multiple possibilities, the 1-2 is still on the table because we have not exceeded the high of 1113.69. With all the options available it is best to rely more on TA until the counts become clearer. the levels to watch are 1113.69 on the top, and 1082.74 on the bottom. Making higher highs, or lower lows would help set the direction of the trend.

3 comments:

  1. Michael, the age old question is, "which way"?
    Also, the 50% Retrace is 1121.43. And why is the SPX unable to Close above the highest close of 1110.27?

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  2. Mbew, Morning, The SPX is most likely in some sort of a topping movement, stuck in a trading range, but unable to have enough momentum to hold the highs.

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  3. re the bbands

    based on the macd, slo stoch i would be betting move is down

    ReplyDelete