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Thursday, December 3, 2009

Thursday Updates

Hope you had the opportunity to see this chart when I posted it down below earlier, it worked perfectly this afternoon, broke the last bullish Fib fan, back-tested, then proceeded to sell-off!!
After the close, WOW, what a day with an 18 point sell-off from the high this morning. I am now a cautiously optimistic bear. The SPX ended the day parked right on the trendline from November 2nd. It is still very possible that this will turn out to be the 2nd wave (down), with new highs still to come. Breaking below 1083.74, would make the 2nd wave larger then the 1st, thus invalidating the Bullish count.
Breadth for the day was only 1.83:1, decliners on above average volume.
Levels to watch tomorrow are 1111.13, and 1083.74.
It should be an interesting open with the unemployment data coming out before the bell.
Click here for an updated chart, -and please vote!!!
8:56, Here are the counts I have going, still hard to tell which one is more likely. One option would have us already topped, and the other option, only the 1st wave finished. Watching for a break below 1085 would confirm the trend has changed to bearish. The TA is currently mixed, some time frames are bullish, and others are bearish.

Click here for an updated Fib fan chart!!!
8:11, Updated Fib fan on the SPX, still with-in the the last bullish Fan, if it breaks below, possible that this rally is over. The fan really helps to confirm trend changes, not always 100% correct as I have seen the price recapture the fan, but when used with EW and other forms of TA becomes a great tool.

Click here for an updated Bollinger Band chart!!!
7:25, This might of been the biggest head fakes in a long time, after that gap up open, the Bollinger Bands barely budged and are still wound up tight. The action this morning might be just starting.

Click here for an updated Russell chart!!!
7:18, Even after opening gap up this morning, the Russell has yet to make a higher high. Also of note is the MACD on this chart, starting to come up onto trendline resistance, with the Histogram already showing negative divergence.
The SPX made a new high this morning before immediately retracing back below the open, and into the red zone in a very impulsive looking wave, ie. straight down, hehe. All while the VIX and the Dollar failed to make new lows!!

4 comments:

  1. No Hindenburg Omen today? I'd have thought these would be ideal conditions, a spike followed by a sharp downturn.

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  2. Hey Jim, I checked for the new highs and lows right after the bell, and it was not even close. Once the new lows start heading up I will start updating more on the HO. Thanks, Michael!!

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  3. I really enjoy your posts, although I don't usually comment..... you know me as GWLK, or girliegirl.... you are cautious, and I imagine you trade similiar to my style..... and you are very flexible yet often correct..... very often.... thank you for this site to visit....

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  4. I was wondering who was coming from The Lazy Trader!!
    I have that feeling our style is close to the same, mine possibly longer term. Can you say TZA, LOL

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