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Friday, February 4, 2011

Friday Updates!!!

This is the Daily chart of TNX, which tracks the 10 year Treasure Bond Yield, overlaid with the Trend Finder II which nailed this latest move when it turned bullish on Wednesday. On the day TNX is up a whooping $2.58 or 7.64%, pushing the yield up to 3.634%. Longer-term TNX is coming up onto resistance around $37 from a long-term trendline(gray) that started back in the middle of 2007, if TNX can break-thru this line, yields are going to escalate and the possible triangle would be invalidated. This action most likely will confirm that a LONG-term bottom was put in back in late 2008. Home loan rates are tied to the 10 year bond and this could signal that those ridiculous low rates are a thing of the past. Higher rates are not going to help put a floor in home prices, and could exacerbate declining home values. Ben is going to need QE3, on steroids to keep a lid on rates if TNX does break-out.
Futures on the Dollar are up this morning 0.45%, the Dollar also broke out of the down-trending channel. There is strong resistance up at $79.025 from two previous lows. The
Trend Finder II did give an intraday buy signal on the daily chart, but this needs to hold till the close. The Trendfinder has a great track record on the Buck!!!! Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
The Median channel line is still being respected as resistance, and minor support has moved up to 1294.83, with major support at 1275.10. The count on the squiggles are still mixed, the SPX needs to break-out in one direction or the other to clarify if the count is bullish, or bearish.
The Dollar did signal a buy this morning on the Trendfinder, this signal needs to hold thru the close to be confirmed, chart coming soon!!!

1 comment:

  1. Rising bond yields & rising USD...are commodities toast?