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Friday, February 4, 2011

Friday, After the Close!!!

Major breakout in the treasuries now, BTW, the Trendfinder signaled a buy on 2/2, that nailed this run.
Things are looking up on the Dollar today, first resistance will be from the 20 day MA, currently at $78.58. Please see this morning post for more on the Dollar.
Here is an interesting weekly chart with a larger view of the MACD and the RSI, both of which are in extreme conditions, odds are we should be seeing a sizable correction soon.
The SPX closed the week at a new high, unfortunately the RUT, BKX, and TRAN still have not confirmed. The squiggle count is up in the air with a couple possibilities, neither of which are strong. If this is the 1-2 up pattern in blue question marks, then we should be seeing larger price movements and stronger market internals because we would be in the 3rd wave up. The other option, which it not labeled on the chart, would be replacing that 1-2 combo, with a 3-4, one degree smaller. This option has an UGLY 4th wave, valid, but an unusual looking 4th wave that does not channel correctly.
Saying today was flat is an understatement, Breadth closed at 1.01015:1, decliners, on the weakest volume of the week, only 918M shares traded on the NYSE. These numbers do not fit well at all with the possibility of the SPX being in the 1-2 up option.
The Obama spin-machine is working in full force with the unemployment numbers released today. Courtesy of Miss Malibu.

"In the last two months, they've lowered the unemployment rate by almost a full point with only 139,000 new jobs created. We're being spun like a top. They have just subtracted 2.2 million jobs from the universe of available jobs. That's how you get the unemployment rate down to 9%: Don't count people who have given up looking for work. If you add those people in, the unemployment rate went up over 17%"

I believe the vast majority of the population are looking right thru these numbers and the spin being put out by the left-leaning media and know what the real truth really is, their neighbors, friends, and relatives are not finding work and the situation is worsening with people being dropped off of the unemployment rolls. Throw in the food and energy inflation that the FED does not consider in their cooked numbers and we are going to be in the same situation as Egypt here soon. Two weeks ago NO one dreamed that Egypt would be rioting in the streets throwing their Government to the way-side, so saying it cannot happen here is not accepting reality.

More charts coming as they get updated, now thru this week-end!!!


  1. I can't believe we are here in feb 2011 with the S&P at 1310.....

  2. I recall seeing a graph showing historical correlation between TYX and the Dollar (yields up, Dollar up) over the past thirty years. Yields are breaking out - is the Dollar about to as well? Do yields rise and then consolidate at a higher level before heading even higher? How would this not utterly destroy housing markets worldwide? I'm thinking Long Bond yields peak in the late Spring at plus 5%, at which, if one subscribes to the minority non inflationary world view, they would be a screaming buy. This game of chicken between stocks and government bonds could get very interesting!

  3. Michael:

    I think what you mean to say regarding the $UST1M chart above is that "a breakdown" in price was triggered, and therefore a run-up in yields ensued.