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Monday, January 3, 2011

Monday updates!!!

9:13, The VIX has now moved down to support of the 20 day MA at 17.25. Next solid support is the previous low down at 15.40.
The daily TRIN reading is in EXTREME over-bought territory this morning at only 0.39,(upper left hand side of the chart with-in the red circle is the daily reading)this reading does not even fit on the chart and shows that this rally has reached extremes since June when the market was over-sold. The blue lines are the 10 day MA.
7:56, This is something that I never recalled seeing on the SPX over the last two years, the price action breaking above the 3rd deviation of the Keltner channel, and if I recall correctly, odds are that signals a reversal or top of some sort when it happens.
7:34, Short-term the RSI and the STO are now into over-bought territory joining the longer-term time frames. Support for this rally is now at 1254.19. Resistance is slightly above 1280 at the heavy green median channel line. The SPX has no business up towards the upper black channel line because 5th waves need to be weaker then the preceding 3rd wave.
Even though the SPX has made higher highs since the 7:18 comment, breadth is not increasing, it has really been decreasing as the early morning has wore on and is now currently running 3.38:1, advancers. This has the markings of a short-term rally that will be soon reversed.
7:18, So far this morning the VIX is not confirming this move, as the major indexes are making new highs, the VIX is only down 0.45% and no where close to making new lows, diverging.
Breadth is currently running 3.71:1, advancers, bullish, but no where near the numbers we have seen in this rally, and when you consider the size of the move in the SPX this morning, breadth is actually weak.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
We got the pop for a 5th wave this morning putting the indicators back into over-bought conditions on the shorter-term time frames. The next sell-off must be impulsive to even think that a top was in. The Trendfinder is on the verge of showing a bullish signal this morning.

9 comments:

  1. Hope you're right, Michael. Went short again last week, this thing is just gravity-defying. The higher we go though, the harder we fall (eventually).

    Thanks for the updates and a happy new year.

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  2. Tom, I agree, I did go short last week, but my stop was taken out, since then I have been sitting on my hands waiting for a entry point to go short again.

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  3. So this is the "January Effect" at work? Let's see how long it lasts!

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  4. SPX
    Time to get out of Dodge?
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/01/spx.html

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  5. This is simply amazing.

    I have lost all respect for the human intellect

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  6. The human intellect is alive and well...at the market makers anyway. Strong distribution here (indicated by the rounding top on short time frames) as institutional investors put their clients' money to work, hungrily (perhaps stupidly) buying from the banks. It's a top!

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  7. Technical Issue
    Clicked on the "Live Chat" link and note that it's dated October 27, 2009 and the most recent post dated August 20, 2010. Is this function "Out of Order" or have you "Gone Fishing"?

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  8. Trouble is, 99er, there's been strong distribution for several weeks now, and the thing just won't go down. We've barely had consecutive down days since the late summer. Something will snap soon for sure but I just daren't be heavily short - nothing makes sense anymore.

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  9. 99er, LOL!!! that is just a comment spot, scroll down a little and you will find the chat-room

    ReplyDelete