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Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Tuesday, after the close!!!

Daily SPX
Gold
No updates on the counts today, it is next to impossible to put together any short-term count that is worth trading on at this point. Until the squiggles start clearing themselves up it is best to put the Elliott wave counts on the back-burner and use other forms of TA. Many people are fooling themselves if they think this correction is predictable in terms of counts for the short-term. It serves no one to try and post counts that have low probabilities and MANY different options that are capable of morphing into a more complex correction. The larger picture does still support the idea that the SPX is in a 4th wave correction, with a small possibility of a larger sell-off developing.
The indicators are moving into over-sold conditions on the Daily chart, all though they still have room to run lower. The SPX also continues fighting with the 50 day MA and yet has been unable to close beneath it. Any solid break above 1200.29, or below 1173 even, will set the stage for the trend, which as of now is still bearish, but in limbo.
The Trendfinder triggered a bullish signal this morning on the daily Gold chart. It is possible that Gold is in a 1-2 down from the top and todays move is part of the "C" of 2up wave. Gold making a new high above 1424.30 would take that option off of the table. During corrections the Trendfinder can whip-saw a little, but it more then makes up for it on impulsive waves with early entries, and good exits points.

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