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Friday, November 19, 2010

Friday Updates!!!

Still wondering if Ben can read charts, because his plan with the announcement of QE2 was for the FED to buy US Treasuries to drive down yields, looks like Ben's plan back-fired as yields are sky-rocketing led by the longer-term bonds that are accelerating to the upside quicker then the shorter-term bonds. In my humble world, increasing rates slow down growth as credit becomes more expensive. Good job Ben, now I wonder what his exit plan is because when all these bonds the FED is buying start to mature, who is going to buy them, and where is that money going to come from?
Let me guess, QE3........!!!!
There is a good battle going on today over the 20 day MA which is currently at 1197.94 at acting as resistance.
This is one of the charts I am referring to when I mention that some of the longer-term charts are showing the SPX entering into a longer-term sell-off, the Summation Index is in a downtrend that has accelerated down from the highs and is still printing red bars.
Here is a squiggle count for the 4th wave option if the A wave is completed, which at this point I am not convinced it is. I am leaning towards this B wave as a complex corrective instead of the simple a-b-c zig-zag. Squiggles with-in corrective waves are next to impossible to forecast because they have the ability to morph into complex correctives with many different counts, that is why under EWT corrective waves are not as tradable as impulsive waves are.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
Odds have the SPX working on the B wave(blue) up, of the 4th wave(red). Around the 1210 level the SPX will be hitting resistance from the previous lower thick green channel line. Also the SPX has yet to make a higher high above 1207.43 and for that reason I still have an optional bearish scenario, a series of 1-2's down. This pattern IMO carries low odds, but never the less a possibility worth keeping an eye on. Some, not all of the longer-term charts are suggesting that the SPX is entering into a longer-term sell-off.

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