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Friday, November 19, 2010

Friday, After the close!!!

On the 4 hour chart of the SPX with the Trendfinder set-up a buy signal was created this afternoon, this does put the daily bearish signal in jeopardy now. Yesterday, the 4 hour chart for US Dollar also signaled a sell signal, but the daily is still bullish. Gold is still bearish in both the Daily and 4 hour, but now bullish in the short-term 1 hour.
How about a change of pace this afternoon since not much has changed since I posted the SPX earlier today. This is the same Russell chart I have been posting all week and now with some EW labels added. This is were it gets interesting because the Russell cannot have the larger degree 1-2 for the months of July and August as in the SPX.

The SPX has the rally up for the month of July as a picture perfect LD, not so in the Russell(blue circle), a LD does not work even if you try to say a failed 5th because the 3rd wave is longer then the 1st meaning it would have to be an Expanding Leading Diagonal, which in itself is very rare and requires the 5th wave to be the longest, so the LD is a totally invalid count, leaving only one option, that the rally was corrective and can not be counted as a wave 1 up as in the SPX. also the August sell-off is almost a 100% retrace, valid, but not very likely a 2nd wave.

So with that, the Russell is missing that large degree 1-2 wave to be in the same 4th wave correction as the SPX. That opens the door for the latest rally in the Russell for the months of Sept. thru Nov. to be labeled, or counted as a finished 5 wave impulse. Leaving a longer-term bullish option that it was the 1st wave up, and since the high at 738.99(blue 5) the sell-off being part, or the beginnings of a 2nd wave sell-off with new highs to come in a 3rd wave up coming after the 2nd wave is completed, or the rally can be labeled completed as a "C" wave, with the long sell-off from Aprils highs being the "B" wave as in the chart below.

Also of note on the above chart, the most recent channel is still being respected, with the median line acting as strong resistance, notice the head and shoulder set-up, something I hate to mention because every time I do, they fail. Maybe this time will be different.

5 comments:

  1. i dont dislike your last chat... but both C are corrective and that is impossible.... the move from 1040 is corrective theis is the reason mauny people are lost and try to see what is not there.... corrective is the word....

    i still think bottom is in 739.... and that makes more sense for all chart.... we will see...

    nice jobe...

    nice weekend

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  4. sgr....i like that chart... is my alternative one... but.... always after a expanding triangle... always... the move after is truncated.... and shorter than "e" of B.... than i dont like that C to new highs.... u can have a C shorter.... new X and new ABC... but C needs to finnish truncated before anything happen....

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