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Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Wednesday, After the close!!!

The SPX is coming up on a level that has had numerous important minor tops and bottoms and has provided a tough area of support/resistance over the last few years.
If the bulls can break through 1131.23, it would be very possible to run up to the 200 Week Moving Average at 1201.51 before hitting resistance, which just also happens to be the same resistance where the SPX topped out. The bears do have the three Moving Averages in bearish alignment, which would keep the SPX longer-term bearish unless the 50 week crosses back over the 20 week.
After the close, A go no-where type of day that had the feel of a 4th wave period of consolidation. Trying to get an orthodox Elliott wave count on this rally is impossible because of all the complex corrections that can each be counted a different way that when added together just presents too many different options, so for now I will stick with larger counts, and even that is uncomfortable to trade with. One of the most important things is that the old high of 1131.23 is holding as strong resistance that if the bulls can not break-thru opens the door for the bears to take control back. There are signs appearing that this rally is reaching a point where it could topple easily, low volume, and breadth are not recipes for a sustainable rally, along with the large CAPS leading over the small CAPS.
The first decent sign of a break-down would be making a minor lower low at 1105.15, the first thin dotted horizontal red line, filling the latest gap in the process.
The SPX did close above all the major Daily Moving Averages, with the closest, the 200 day, acting as support at 1115.93.
Breadth for the day ended at 1.13:1, advancers on light volume, only 900M shares traded on the NYSE. The VIX did close in the green along with all the major indexes, up 2.50%, another unhealthy sign as traders are pre-positioning for OPEX Friday.
The short-term trend still remains up, and the longer-term trend is in jeopardy of going bullish if the bears do not get going and 1131.23 is taken out. The Trend Finder closed at 25% bullish.
Elk season is on hold for now, due to bad weather moving in, so things are back to normal, and I will be updating everyday for at least the next week (the early season ends Sunday) :)
More charts later this afternoon when Stockcharts has them all updated.

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