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Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Wednesday updates

After the close, The big battle continues as the SPX closed right underneath the 50 day MA, which was at 1095.89 at the close. Still hard to say for sure if we do have a 1-2 down printed, or if this is part of a 4th wave which would lead to higher highs, right now the only way I can see a 4th wave is if the 5th wave were to extend, because there is not another set of 1-2's available to set another 3-4 combo. The SPX did break that middle channel line meaning the rally is waning, but still nothing confirmed for the start of a new sell-off.
Breadth for the day closed at 1.22:1, decliners, for all purposes, Flat, and not very useful for figuring out which count is most likely. Even the Indicators are stuck in mid range on the above chart, so there are no over-sold/bought conditions showing on the 15 minute chart but the 60 minute chart has the indicators rolling over from their extreme over-bought conditions (bearish).
The longer the SPX remains in this tight range, the more it would favor the bulls, as a 4th wave would be the more probable outcome, the bears need a quick, and strong sell-off at, or very close to tomorrows open before this turns into a triangle and invalidates a 1-2, 1-2 down count.
Today was one of the few days the SPX did not make a higher high, but the trend does remain up until it starts making lower lows. The Trend Finder, at the close, still had all signals bullish, but as I mentioned yesterday, it is set-up as a lagging indicator designed to catch the majority of the trend, and not to pin-point tops and bottoms.
7:56, This is a very important level that in the end will determine the longer-term trend, besides the longer-term Fib fan chart posted below, there is also an important trendline that has been well respected, and now the most used set of Moving Averages are all clustered together around 1095.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:33, It is quite possible that we have an impulse wave down for the open, and could be the first 1-2, of a new down trend, the SPX needs to start breaking down by taking out that middle channel line to give this more validity, and ultimately the lower channel line.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:24, The is an interesting battle going on in the longer-term Fib fans, the SPX is trying to hold the line, and turn resistance into support,.
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7:19, The SPX is testing the trendline of support on the short-term Fib fan chart, breaking below would be the first sign that this rally is in jeoperdy.

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