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Thursday, July 15, 2010

Thursday updates

After the close, The SPX did retrace far enough back to invalidate that 1-2, 1-2 count posted early this morning then went into a volatile trading range that one would expect from a the day before OPEX as traders position themselves for a new month of options, before exploding higher near the close on the news that BP finally got a tight seal on the oil well. Wild day for daytraders!!!
The bad news for the bears was that the SPX finally closed above the 50 day MA, as well as recaptured the long-term bullish Fib fan leaving the 200 day MA as the next point of resistance, 1112.31. The next point would be the previous major high, and that is at 1131.23.
Tomorrow will most likely also be another volatile day and a rally above 1115 would not be out of the question before a top might get put in.
Breadth for the day ended at 1.04:1, decliners, which is pretty amazing considering there was a 20 point trading range today.
The Trend does remain bullish, two of the indicators were very close to going to a sell at the low this morning, then reversed and stayed in the buy mode. There were also no major higher highs, nor lower lows made today although the SPX did make a minor lower low that was below yesterdays low before it reversed higher.
7:44, The move in the VIX is much more impressive then what the indexes are printing out, up 8% on the morning and so far, printing its third black bar in a row. The indicators on this daily chart are also starting to roll over to a buy now.
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7:40, With the sell-off so far this morning, the SPX was unable to capture the more bullish Fab fan on the long-term chart. If this sell-off continues, support would be around the 1025 level.
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7:28, The short-term bullish fib fans are starting to breakdown, but the SPX needs to break below 1070 to escape from the bullish fans.
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7:20, The 1-2, 1-2 down count is still holding water. 1087.68, the low of the ii wave, needs to hold for this to stay as an impulsive wave down until the whole full five waves play-out.

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