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Thursday, July 29, 2010

Thursday updates

The Summation Index continues to forge higher, but not at the speed it was going a couple of days ago, score one for the bulls!!
Wow, this chart has been on fire for the last couple of months, now is the time for a bounce, off of the 50% retracement line, before the Dollar breaks thru the last support of the bullish Fib fan.
One point for the bears today, was the SPX fall back into the bearish Fib fan.
After the close, The SPX has reached a point where a very decisive move is about to take place, is it going to continue to roll over and head for new lows after breaking the last channel line and take out the all important low of 1056.88, which would invalidate the bullish option, or will it start a powerful iii of 3 wave up. Both options should be crystal clear as Breadth and volume numbers should start reaching extremes. Now is the time to have those stops placed tight, because of the high possibility of a large over-night gap appearing at the open. There still is a third option, that this wave ii of 3 down wave has not completed and could morph into a complex correction leading to short-term higher highs.
The SPX did close above the 50 week MA, which closed at 1099.09, with resistance at 1121.95 from the 20 week MA, which twice now has held. Support on the downside 1081.81 from the 50 day MA.
Breadth for the day was weak, only finishing the day at 1.12:1, advancers, this should change quickly now with both the bullish and bearish options both ready to start a 3rd wave in their respective direction.
The SPX did make another lower low today, but still needs to take out 1087.88 to make an important lower low and confirm the trend has changed to bearish. 1065.25 would be the next low that would provide support.
The Trend Finder still had three sell signals going, and five buys, resulting in a 25% bullish reading at the close. It will not take much right now for two of those sell signals to go back to buy as both are very close to a "zero" reading.
9:15, Just to keep the bears honest, it does not hurt to see both sides with a bullish perspective. It is possible we are working on a 2nd wave down, of a 1-2, 1-2 up (gray). A break below 1056.88 would invalidate this count!!!!
8:48, The SPX broke below the 50 week MA, which was at 1099.03, a close beneath here would be another sign the short-term trend is changing to bearish. The next level of support from the Moving Averages is the 50 day down at 1081.74 if the 50 week holds as resistance.
A third sell signal has been triggered for the Trend Finder. Now 25% bullish.
8:35, The VIX broke up and out of the trendline that has been acting as resistance for most of the month of July!!!
8:21, The SPX has broke the short-term channel line, and broke below yesterdays low, at the same time one more of the indicators on the Trend Finder went to a sell, and one more is on the brink of going bearish. So, as of now, 50% bullish, and very possible that if this continues to accelerate down the Trend Finder will be at 25% bullish very soon.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:29, The SPX gapped up this morning in what was looking like an impulsive wave to finish the 5th wave, then went into a sell-off before it was completed, it is very possible that we might have a truncated 5th now with an exhaustion gap up at the open. The SPX needs to make a lower low though to confirm a new downtrend is happening.
**INO has a short video out that goes with some of the things I have been mentioning in the blog lately, if you are interested in watching it, Click here!!!

1 comment:

  1. Signal bear in nasdaq in 1868, swing bear.
    SP so low in 1100-1104 is bear swing