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Friday, July 30, 2010

Friday updates

After the close, this sell-off has turned into a corrective mess now, possible that it was part of a Leading Diagonal pointing down, but I do not put odds for that very high, it is much simpler to label it as a 2nd wave correction, or maybe a "X" wave, trying to get it as an impulse down is grasping at straws. Slight possibility that it also could be counted as a 4th wave in an Ending Diagonal, and for the bearish option, that would be my best guess. Even the late rally after mid-day is much more corrective then impulsive. Sometimes Elliott Wave is not all it is cracked up to be, and this is one of those times, it is best to put EW on the back burner and focus more attention on the other Technical signs the Market has to offer.
The SPX did make a lower low at the open, and never did quite make a higher high, above yesterdays, so that trend does remain down and the Trend Finder still has three sell signals along with five buys, so that remains at 25% bullish. A good time to sit back and wait for a clearer signal on market direction to ensure the odds are in your favor.
Breadth closed at 1.42:1, advancers.
Since Roy will most likely be unavailable tomorrow for his video update, I will save all the charts I was planning on posting this afternoon after stock-charts gets their dailies updated, and make a full post in the morning. Sunday I plan on tracking down how the Trend Finder did for the month, and will post those results. This should be interesting since it will be the first complete month and there was a variety of market conditions.

11:50, The SPX has broke above the short-term bearish trend/channel line, this increases the odds for the bullish count, although the bearish count is not void entirely, this sell-off is really looking corrective now.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:53, The blue 1-2 down count is on the verge of getting invalidated along with the short-term down channel. The SPX did make a minor lower low this morning when it broke below 1090.22, but was unable to make a major one, a break below that red dashed line at 1087.88.


Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
There was enough data this morning to add a bearish fan, and as long as the SPX can stay with-in this new fan the trend will favor the bears.

1 comment:

  1. hey COL !
    i did a little work on $NYSI long time frame and the divergences really show up well.
    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3449922&cmd=show[s205341832]&disp=P

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