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Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Tuesday updays

The Summation Index is clearly showing the bullish trend now as it accelerates upwards, printing black bars that are increasingly further apart. It should start decelerating before the next trend change.
Just one more bad piece of news for the bears, the SPX is testing the very last bearish Fib fan, once broke, there is little in the way on the fans to keep the SPX from advancing higher.

This is just one option on the longer term counts. I still have no one count I prefer as all of them have flaws, some more serious then others, and no one count is standing out as having high enough odds to be a reliable count.
After the close, The SPX finally broke above the majority of the over-head resistance that was cluttered around the 1105-1115 level, and with conviction, as 95.62% of the total volume was buy volume, and Breadth closing at 5.93:1, advancers. By taking out the 200 day MA, and making a higher high, the longer-term trend now is bullish, as the Technicals have been showing for the last week, as one after the other showed bullish signals.
The majority of the TA is now bullish, with the exception of volume, which has really been waning for most of this rally, but as we watched last year, the SPX inched ever higher, on decreasing volume, making new highs along the way.
One of the few bearish things on the SPX now are the Elliott Waves, which can not be counted as an impulse wave up, with-out breaking rules. There are just too many over-lapping waves to get an impulse count going, and those same waves, are making it hard to pin down a corrective count with any odds worth trading on.
The next upside resistance for the SPX is the old high at 1119.03 followed by the 50 day MA at 1143.35, on the downside, there is now a lot of support, starting with the 200 day MA at 1108.66, followed by todays low of 1089.03, and then the 20 day MA at 1084.57, just for starters.
Until the SPX starts making lower lows, the longer-term trend will remain up, even though the short-term counts are bearish, the TA wins, as the counts can continue to morph into even more complex corrective counts.
The VIX is one of the largest obstacles for the bearish case, It broke trendline support and is in the process of filling those older gaps, until the VIX turns upwards again, the bulls have the VIX on their side
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:58, The SPX is still in the most bullish part of the fan.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:52, The short-term squiggles still have multiple ways that they can be counted, and they can stay that way until this corrective wave up has finished. There is a wedge forming now, where a break to the downside might signal the end of the correction.

3 comments:

  1. for better part of 10 or 15 years, your read on McSum correct. However, since 2008 I've seen McSum whipsaw like never before. Some up moves were fakeouts. But otherwise, all the signs are there for continuing upside, except of course MM who says tomorrow has the last of the upside.

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  2. Thanks for the charts.

    This is another guy I follow, who has been spot on...not only the market.

    http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com/news/2010/06/sp-500-analysis/

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