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Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Tuesday updates

The Daily chart of the SPX has also turned more bearish with a red shoot now showing for the 21/34 Histogram, the 50 day MA quickly falling towards the 200 day MA, a cross on the 12/26 MACD, and full sell signals on the RSI, and STO, not very many things on this chart are bullish at the present time
After the close, Things went from bearish, to down right ugly today, as the SPX made a major new low, on its third day of 90+% sell volume, and today's was really bearish, with 98.22% of the total volume, being sell volume. This was a devastating day for the bulls having the low of 1042.17 taken out with the strong technicals for the day. November 2nd's, 1029.38 is the next major low and point of support, followed by 1019.75 and 991.97.
We did complete a full fives wave down today, so a small retrace would be in order for another 2nd wave (2), before we really get into the meat of a iii, of 3 down, but I suspect it will be a very minimal retrace.
Breadth ended the day at 10.95:1, decliners which is very bearish, but not quite the levels that we should see for the meat of a 3rd wave down.
At the close we still had 6 sell signals, and 2 buy signals, but I expect that after the daily charts get updated, that those 2 buy signals will become sell signals because of the size and strength of today's sell-off, moving the larger trend to 100% bearish.
7:41, This would be the most bearish way to interpret the waves, BTW, I did bump up the degree I have the chart down below labeled for this current sell-off. The SPX is right on the cusp of taking out 1042.17, and making a new low, that would most likely cause a further acceleration to the selling, and help support the idea that we are truly in a 3rd wave down.
* Current Breadth is now at 13.81:1, decliners, but on an incredible 98.23% sell volume, and if we do close near these lavels, that would make three days of 90+% sell volume, since the last 90+% buy volume day!!!!
6:55, This is a huge development for the bears, breaking below that bullish Fib fan line of support, and recapturing the bearish fans!!!
* Current breadth is running 13:1, decliners!!!
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6:47, Possible that yesterdays move was not a triangle at all, but a failed 2nd wave, followed by a 1-2 down. The Russell did have a much better looking 2nd wave, that made a higher high. 1052.25 is support, followed by the biggie, 1042.17.
6:38, The SPX opened gap down, and well below the lower Bollinger bands, the odds are favoring a quick reversal as the price tries to recapture the bands.

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