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Monday, June 28, 2010

Monday updates

After the close, Today turned into the never ending triangle day, there are multiple ways to interpret the squiggles, both bullish, and bearish ways ways to label the moves because of the number of corrective waves in the larger structure. It is very possible, that the "e' wave ended where I have the "d" wave labeled, and that would be one of the bearish options, with the start of an impulse wave down at the end of trading. Since triangles can not be a second wave correction, it means that this was a"B" wave, or a 4th wave, and since I do not see anyway to fit a 4th wave in the larger count, the best possibility is that it is a "B" wave, that is why I chose the above count as the most likely. One problem I do see on the above count, is the the "e" wave is lower then the "c" wave, but it is not longer, a broken guideline, that I am going to attribute to a over-throw. This count, would also still have the head and shoulder pattern valid, with a reach to the 1100 range to complete the "C" wave of 2 up.
Today was a low volume day of consolidation that should have a good thrust out of this triangle very soon. Breadth confirmed the slow day, ending at a whooping 1.14:1, decliners, with no lower lows, or higher high being made except for that last little spike down at the close, where it did make a minor, intraday lower low.
Nothing changed with the trend today, we still have 6 sell signals, and 2 buy signals leaving that trend as 50% bearish.

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7:39, The SPX still has yet to clarify a decent count for the sell-off, they are two options on the chart, and a third, where it can be counted as a leading Diagonal, the inverse head and shoulders is also still on the table and that could push it up towards the 1100 level if it plays out, the best thing that could happen would be making a new low, 1067.89 to confirm the trend is still down.

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7:08, The SPX is still firmly in the bearish Fib fans, with no short-term bullish fans available right now, and as long as it does stay in that fan, things are good for the bears.

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