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Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Wednesday updates

After the close, Wow, the bulls coughed up the ball with only three waves up and at the 38% retracement level, chances are very good, that is it for the ii (green) wave up, the only other option would be the sell-off this afternoon being an "X" wave, as part of a double zig-zag, a-b-c-x-a-b-c that would push the SPX up to the 50% retracement level and that open gap before finishing the ii wave up. The bad part for that optional count though are the squiggles coming off the top are impulsive right now, a series of 1-2's. The Bullish option(gray count) is really hurting, and will be invalidated if 1059 gets taken out, putting the 4th wave into the price territory of the first, not to mention there is also a serious problem with the 4th wave breaking out of the channel.
No higher highs made today so the trend remains down, the chart above has two horizontal red lines marking the important highs for the trend, with a break below 1050 being huge for the bears.
Breadth for the day ended at 1.61:1, decliners, not what the bulls needed for a follow through day from yesterday's bullish move, now it is up to the bears to see if they can follow through tomorrow, and if so, with the wave count we have going now it could get down right violent.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:42, The long-term Fib fans are showing major resistance around the 1125 level with support now around 1050 and moving higher everyday. If support fails, next level of support is down at 1000. 8:34, The VIX broke below trendline support, but that spike down looks suspicious and might be a misprint. The MACD and RSI are now in extreme over-sold territory.

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8:22, The SPX has now reached 38% retracement for this 2nd wave up, and has yet to make any major higher highs. One note of interest is how high the RSI has already gone, now its highest reading of the entire sell-off, amazing how quickly it has reached over-bought conditions. This could be a very short lived 2nd wave up.
Breadth update, 6.53:1, advancers, respectable, but no where near the levels we have seen in the last couple of weeks with the decliners.Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
6:56, When the SPX breaks down, and out of the most recent bullish Fib fan, odds are, the 2nd wave up will be finished, until then, the bulls have the ball.



    Thank you

  2. Why not a four (previous bottom being B of four) and now started fifth wave down? As the fourt wave broke out of channel, it could mean that fifth wave overthrows?


    Thank you