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Thursday, May 27, 2010

Thursday updates

The first spot of resistance on the long-term Fib fans is up at 1125, where the down sloping trendline from the top meets the up sloping Fib fan, breaking above here would be the very bad news for the bears.
After the close, The bulls ran the show today, closing at the high of the day with a parabolic move in the last half hour of trading. The gap up at 1110 still remains open, as a large target just wanting to be filled. The SPX did make a higher high today, moving the trend to neutral. The squiggles in the last part of the day started over-lapping making a reliable count for the final "C" wave difficult at this point.
Breadth for the day ended at 13.11:1, on a VERY impressive 97.10%, up volume day. Market internals this strong cannot be ignored, and even though the rally up from 1040.78 does not look impulsive at this point, the large sell-off can be counted as an a-b-c corrective, bears need to be very cautious as this could explode higher to new highs if there is follow through to today's strong bullish move. Two back-to-back 90% up volume days would be extremely bullish!!!
Levels for tomorrow are 1119.02 for the upside, and 1065.59 for the downside, either of which would provide direction for the trend. Some upside resistance will also be found with the 200 day MA, currently at 1104.44, and the 20 day MA up at 1129.93.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:08, The SPX was able to recapture the bullish Fib fans, and is no longer in any bearish fans on the short-term chart. If the SPX does go above 1095.09, the trend will be changed to neutral until we make another higher high, or lower low, 1119.03, and 1065.59, respectively. Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:38, I am going to try something new, by providing a one minute chart with the squiggles labeled, definitely no guarantees on how long I can keep this going because if the market gets crazy again updating the squiggles will become a lower priority compared with keeping the longer term charts updated.
BTW, Breadth is running 15.44:1, advancers!!!


Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!

7:12, The "X" wave won out, expect the SPX to head higher for the next few hours of trading to finish the wave ii structure, labeled as a double zig-zag, a-b-c-x-a-b-c, with the a-b-c-x wave completed, and currently working on the last part of the second "a" wave. The open gap at 1110 would be the target, to get filled and finish this corrective wave up. At 1095.09, the trend goes to neutral, and anything above 1119.03 should be considered bullish depending on the internals.

4 comments:

  1. Hey Mike, as you probably know I'm on a different count, but for your count, this could also have just completed a 3,3,5 flat for 2

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  2. I recall the breadth of decliners being over double this on a few of the "off" days we have experienced since early May. If I was a bull I would not find today's advance breadth particularly reassuring in comparison.

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  3. S & P 500 Triangle in hourly chart

    http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/s-p-500-triangle-in-hourly-chart.html

    Thank you

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  4. Hi, it sure looks to me like we just completed a 5-3-5 A-B-C up from the 1037 (ES) lows and overthrew a rising wedge at the end of the C wave. It's funny that different people can come to quite different conclusions looking at the same data - just goes to show that EW is more of an art than a science.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/Spudthorpe/folders/Jing/media/a24f87bf-b3fb-4af5-a35f-0ba4f46e8df6

    ReplyDelete