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Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Tuesday updates

A special update from Roy!!!
Roy sent me a brief video update this afternoon to share with you, he nailed the counts today.
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After the Bell updates!!!
Here are the counts I have going for the daily chart I posted below, that shows the possibility of this sell-off being a "B" wave. There are two options going on in this chart, both are double zig-zags, I just do not know whether that last set of Blue A and B's belong there, it is possible that it should be labeled as an "A" wave (gray), with further corrections in the future to finish off that larger degree "B" wave (gray). That 38% retracement level at 1152.84, would be the ideal spot for the "B" wave to finish.
The bearish option has the SPX sitting right at the apex point of the triangle from late March, and a down trend will be confirmed tomorrow if we have follow-thru with the 1-2, 1-2 down count. I am still skeptical until we get follow-thru because so many of these 1-2, 1-2 down counts have been invalidated before they end, turning into corrective counts.
Breadth for the day does suggest that a 3rd wave is underway, with some of the highest inter-day readings I have seen for months, at times, over 8:1, decliners. It ended the day at 6.06:1, on heavy sell volume, all things that should get the bears excited, and the bulls fore-warned that something big is brewing.
Some of the short-term support levels down below are 1168.48, which is the 50 day MA, 1152.84, and 1132.15, which, respectively are the 38%, and 50% retracement levels.

After the close, WOW, now that was an exciting day, there are so many charts, and points I would like to show today that it would take me a couple of hours to post everything that was interesting in the markets today, so I am going to try and just hit the most important ones. The first and most important point for me, is to see follow-thru tomorrow, we have had these big days back and forth for the last few days, and none of them have had any follow-thru the next day. The Bears have the ball, and now is the time for them to show their stuff tomorrow, and finally get a sustainable sell-off going, before the dip buyers jump back in and drive the market back up.
The SPX did break below the long-term trendline from 666 today, and unless it is quickly recaptured it will fall victim to the curse, that once it is broken, it becomes resistance that has not been breached.

The Dollar had an awesome day today, making a new high at 83.33, and the Nasdaq had its worse day since last April, losing 74.49 points, or a 2.98% drop.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:42, BKX is now on double Fib fan support, this has been a very well-respected fan line.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:04, The long-term Fib fan chart has the next support around the 1160-65 level, the last short-term Fib line BTW. (neon green)
**** updated breadth readings are through the roof at 8.06:1, decliners!!!!

8:00, The short-term VIX now has three open gaps, that would love to be filled, and something that should be on most peoples minds until they do get filled. A crazy day for the VIX, currently up 22.63%.

7:56, The VIX has finally broke above the trendline that goes all the way back to the highs in '08. The upper red dashed line at 29.22, would be making a higher high, something that would be also be very important for changing the trend to up!!!

7:46, the SPX is currently at 1176.14. There is Bollinger band support at 1175.77, and the 50 day MA is at 1168.53. Breaking below 1175.12, is making a lower low. 1152.84, is 38% retracement from the high of 1219.80, and the low of 1044.50.

7:30, This is the bullish option I showed yesterday on the daily chart, where we could also be in a sideways correction, just as we were back in November that went on for over a month in a tight trading range with over-lapping corrective waves. I put this up in case the 1-2, 1-2 down count, shown below falls apart, this would be the next alternative.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:12, Here is the bearish option, a nested set of 1-2's, this count needs some serious follow thru to stay valid now that we would be in the iii of 3 wave. I am always hesitant when I see these 1-2, 1-2, set-ups, as they have usually morphed into a corrective counts before they were over with.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
6:58, A large gap down open, that has some legs with breadth currently 6.94:1, decliners, a break below the 1175 level will be cause to change the trend to down.

3 comments:

  1. Support for 1179 begins to have some weight, it seems that there is difficulty in breaking, one wonders how long it will hold.
    In Dax may arise for daytrade a good buy in 6043, zone rsi below 30 and zone support, there may be at high reaction

    www.mercadosbull.blogspot.com

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  2. Beware that those at the ends of an ABC recovery

    http://pacinversor.blogspot.com/2010/05/s-en-la-linea-de-caida-de-la-montana.html

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  3. There is much to study the corrections in periods of bull market corrections and we've had well over 10%, the maximum was 12.50% which occurred between 2003 to 2007 more precisely at the end of the bull, because the current had two corrections above 10% but never exceeded 11%.
    Data: cfd SP

    'm www.mercadosbull.blogspot.com

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