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Thursday, May 13, 2010

Thursday updates

I have had this same count for over two months, and the RSI is confirming that this could be the 3rd wave because the RSI normally peaks on the iii of 3 wave.
USO made a new low today, after running with the indexes, either USO is showing us the future, or it will start running opposite of the SPX.

Here is another chart that at the moment is favoring the bears, the VIX, and as long as that trendline holds, the bears are have a good chance if getting a large sell-off.

After the close, The SPX finally said good-bye to that wedge, by breaking out to the downside, and did the same on the Bollinger band chart I posted below. How-ever the sell-off was still not enough to start making any decent lower lows leaving the short-term trend stuck in neutral. One good point the bears have going for them is this rally from 1065 does not form a normal impulsive channel, in fact, I can not get it to fit in any sort of a channel, even with the spike down eliminated, and the counts are also wacky for an impulsive wave.
Breadth for the day was much lower then what a 14 point decline would suggest, closing at 1.81:1, decliners, on volume that was running a little higher then normal, but again, not of the levels we have been seeing for sell-offs. These low numbers would fit in much better, in a 4th, or "B" wave that is consolidating, rather then the start of a major sell-off.
If this is really the start of a sell-off for a 2nd wave down, or the really bearish, 3rd wave down, we definitely need to see some follow-thru tomorrow, and some major lower lows being made (red dashed lines of support), the 20 week MA is down at 1138.54 and that should provide another level of support that is not shown on the chart, but needs to get broke for the wave 3 down count. The bulls too, have a chunk of resistance to clear in the 1177-1181 range for this rally to keep heading higher.
** I would like to thank all those that came forward and provided their support, I really do appreciate it, Thank-You :)

11:52, With all the consolidation over the last couple of days the Bollinger bands are wound tight, the move out of them could be key to determine the trend, which is still at neutral.

10:23, This chart best describes the price action over for the last three and a half days, we need to break-out!!!!

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:05, The SPX is still stuck in limbo, between support and resistance, one interesting thing on the RSI, it has been diverging for the last 3 trading days, which is normal, except I would expect it to break the resistance line for that final 5th wave, but not enough to where it makes a higher high. 7:51, The 50 day MA is at 1174.56, another level the bears need to hold.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:21, Do or die time for the VIX, if support gives way, the VIX will most likely start filling those gaps below like a magnet, sending the indexes higher, not what the bears want to see.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
6:55, The Fib fans are showing a break below the 1150-55 level will make things go bearish, and would be a great sign for the bears to leave the short-term Fib fans behind


  1. not always my friend...

    On extended 5ths, the breadth can be of greater numbers than in a 3rd wave, and I think that's what's going on... :)

  2. actually i just switched to long now at 1.2390 ... i think the short trade on euro is now overcrowded, and to go with EW it supports that, although you have it as a seeries of 1 and 2's.

    check my page to see my count o n the euro