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Friday, May 14, 2010

Friday updates

The final squiggles near the bottom on the Russell were much clearer today, then on the SPX, that is why I believe the SPX most likely had a truncated 5th on the chart below.
After the close, The bulls are quickly losing their ability to regain control over this market, another huge day for the bears with a lot of technical damage done again today. The SPX most likely finished the 1st wave down of 3 today, abit truncated though, setting up Monday for the finish of 2nd wave up. 1147.24 should be strong resistance, and a good spot for the 2nd wave to top and that level would also be between the 38 and 50% retracement level. With the beating the Euro took today I am expecting some sort of intervention over the week-end to find support of that currency, so a gap up open on Monday would not be out of the question, that probably will not last long, just see what happened after they tried to throw a trillion dollars at the problem last week-end, LOL!!!
Breadth ended the day at 7.33:1, not near the levels earlier in the day, but still a very bearish number indicating a broad-based sell-off occurred on heavy volume.
Levels for the trend to continue down would be making another lower low at 1103.84, and that would require the SPX to first fill the open gap, then the next lower low would be 1094.15. On the upside the high at 1173.57 would make the trend bullish, but if we break above 1147.24, I would put the trend back to neutral.
10:23, Just to keep the bears honest!!!
I do have problems getting the squiggles to count out correctly with-out breaking rules to make the rally an impulsive wave, but sometimes, you just have to push the limits, and look at it in a larger time frame. This bullish option, unfortunately stays on the table until the SPX breaks below 1065.

Click here for a live updating chart!!!
8:58, I found that Stockcharts does have live intraday data available for the Euro, symbol- $XEU, no idea why they do not have the same data for the Dollar, anyways, the Euro has broke below another long-term support at 123.94 this morning.
8:33, Here are some of the technicals on the daily chart.
* Breadth now at 11.63:1, decliners.
8:09, If you are not watching the Euro, you need to be, it has now broke below 124, currently at 123.77, in otherwords, the Euro is crashing!!!!
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:56, The sell-off this morning has caused the SPX to lose the short-term Fib fan support.

7:38, I can not ever remember a time when there were so many un-filled gaps on the VIX.
Current breadth reading are now at 10.29:1, if this trend continues today it will be a huge bearish development.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:22, The short-term Fib fans are back, after the SPX was stuck out in space with no Fib fan influence for the last few days. Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:04, The SPX has made two lower lows, confirming the short-term trend is down, until it starts making higher highs. Right now the SPX is at 38% retracement, which is in the area that a 2nd wave down might find support, and bounce higher, that is, if it is following the bullish count, The bearish count still has more downside left before a bounce of the 2nd wave of 3 would begin. The bears should worry something is not right if we break above 1150 before putting in a full five waves down. Gap support starts at 1120, and there is also a major low down there that will provide some support (red dashed line). 6:51, The SPX has sold off first thing this morning, and now has ran into the trendline of support from the lows of last July, and has the 20 week MA to deal with at 1137.57.

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