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Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Tuesday updates


Bonus chart for those that follow the Fib fans, the bears should really like the look of this today, totally broke out of the short-term Fibs, and only one medium term fan is in the way before a major break-out. The bad news is all those gaps that did not get filled.

Here is a good look at how close we came today to the trendline of support that goes back to the bottom. Still lots of room on the daily indicators to turn this sell-off into something major.


After the close, WOW, The Bears have awoken. The SPX dumped hard today making its largest one day drop since the sell-off back in February, smashing through the 20 day MA, and also making its first minor lower low since this rally began two months ago. There was quite a bit of technical damage done today. Needless to say, that the uptrend is in serious jeopardy now.
The count on the chart above is one of the best ways I have found to label the waves if this sell-off follows through making more lower lows. Yesterday, it looked like the sell-off was more corrective, rather then impulsive making a top of some sort questionable, but that changed mid-day today to where now it looks much more impulsive.
The next question will be if the rally from 1044 could of only been the 1st wave up, and now we are in the 2nd wave down, or if the rally was an "A" wave, and now we are in wave "B", both with higher highs in the near-term future or, if a major sell-off is in the cards. It is best to wait and see how it plays out before getting too excited about a major sell-off in the works.
Breadth for the day was very impressive ending at 5.20:1, decliners, also the highest reading for the bears since the early part of February, on heavy sell volume.
The levels of support, are 1175.12, which would be making a major lower low and changing the trend to DOWN, and also in that range would be trendline support that goes all the way back to 666, this is an important number for the bulls to hold. We still need follow-through to confirm this downtrend!!!!
As a side note, the SPX closed back inside the Bollinger bands by the close, after breaking and recapturing them twice today.
***I plan on adding more charts later today when Stockcharts gets their daily charts updated, there should be some interesting ones that are worth sharing after what happened today.

9:04, The VIX broke out and made a higher high, but in doing so left a series of unfilled gaps below which will be wanting to get filled.
Click here for a live, and update chart!!!
8:44, The SPX is now sitting on short-term trendline support at 1191.36, you can also see the levels on this chart where we start making lower lows starting at 1190.19.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:39, updated Bollinger band chart, I post earlier, the SPX did manage to recapture the bands after that gap down open, but then exploded to the downside breaking out of the bands once again.
7:29, The number of stocks that are above their 50 day MA are starting to drop now, or roll over from the highs a week ago, this is a sign that this rally is finally losing momentum.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:07, Here is a Fib fan for the rally off of the 1044 lows, the short-term Fib fan chart I normally post does not have enough data yet to set any new fans, since the bullish fan was broke to the downside mid-day yesterday.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
6:40, The gap down open also broke below the Bollinger bands, a move that usually will reverse itself to recapture the bands

1 comment:

  1. This blog is very good, thanks for your analysis.
    I make a comment
    The SP is still positive trend in the short term and on average even more.
    Therefore these values is still too early for a change of trend short.

    They can follow me on my blog: www.mercadosbull.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete