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Monday, April 26, 2010

Monday updates

The number of stocks that are making new 52 week highs are WAY above the average for the last ten years. 647 stocks making new highs today, this is the highest reading in Stockcharts history that goes back to 1991.
After the close, Interesting day for this count because it can now be counted as a completed Expanded ending diaganol, tomorrow will be the tell if this option is correct, as a sell-off should now be in the cards. Unfortunately, the sell-off so far today has looked much more corrective, then impulsive, really putting this count into jeopardy. The move up from 1083.68, either has to be an a-b-c count that could morph in to a double zig-zag a-b-c-x-a-b-c, or a very bullish 1-2, 1-2, count. These on going corrective counts that keeps traveling in the same direction as the larger trend up from 1044 are very unusual, and hopefully a sign that this whole rally from 666 needs a major correction. Again, the daily charts are full of divergences from the new high today, where the RSI made a higher reading back at 1213.92, then it did today.
The trend however does remain UP, as a new high was made today, with no lower lows being made. This is getting old, but until we do start making lower lows, this fiasco can continue upwards. Right now we have 1190.19 as a minor low, that would put the uptrend into question, and a major low at 1183.68, that would really suggest the uptrend is serious shape, and most likely result in the direction of the trend changing to DOWN.
Breadth for the day ending flat, at 1.13:1, decliners, readings at this level are neutral, and not much can be gleaned from them today.
The SPX did manage to break out of the short-term Fib fan posted earlier in the day, but the VIX never closed the gap up from the open.

Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:51, The short-term Fib fan is slowly breaking down, with the SPX out of the most bullish part of the fan now.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
8:21, This is my most bearish option on the counts, where we have an impulse wave from the lows of 1044, with an ending triangle for the final 5th wave. The ending triangle does fit in here pretty good with all the corrective waves we have had for the last three weeks, and also goes nicely with the Fib fan chart below, where the 1125 level would fill the requirements that the 5th wave (blue), be the longest for an expanding diaganol.
Click here for a live, and updated chart!!!
7:55, That 1125 area is still looking like a good target for the SPX using the Fib fan chart, with that overhead trendline resistance continuing to do its job.

5 comments:

  1. Nice work Col! So does that mean an extended 5th on this last C to complete the expanding diagonal up to 1225-1228? as a 'blow off' we're so close that a regular 5th would likely do it, esp considering the 3 of C was extended...

    ReplyDelete
  2. sorry... extended 5th of an already extended 5th that is...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi. I am forex-cat.

    Your article is always useful.
    Thanks.

    ...my blog:
    http://forex-chart-analysis-and-a-cat.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  4. Check this out Mike. He has gone back decades to looking at the new highs records.

    http://www.chrisperruna.com/2010/04/25/nyse-new-high-new-low-extreme/

    ReplyDelete