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Thursday, February 11, 2010

Thursday updates

Mr Market sure knows how to tease the bears, the McClellan Oscellator stopped just 1.73 points from showing a bullish reading, LOL. But since it is still below zero, that is still bearish short-term. The positive thing about this is now there are 98.27 points for it to run back to the downside.
After the close, This corrective wave 2, is really starting me to question if the labeling is correct, if we do not get a very sharp, and hard sell-off tomorrow I will have to relabel the counts. IMHO, this wave 2 has gone on too long in time for the degree I have it labeled as. My confidence is still high this is a corrective wave, and the internals support that conclusion. A very unusual day where volume just keep decreasing, even into the close.
We did make a higher high today, and the micro counts suggest this is about over. I have found multiple ways to count the squiggles, but they all point to this being the final "C" wave of 2 up.
Breadth for the day ended right at the edge of my comfort zone, 3.32:1, advancers. Much higher and that would really cause alarm for the bearish count. The volume was the saving factor for the bearish count, is might turn out to be the lowest volume day since 1144.50 ( the volume numbers have not been updated from the close yet).
In the 30 minute chart above, the indicators are all into over-bought territory,(as well as the 60 minute charts). The Histo-grams are diverging, showing that the upward momentum is really waning and dieing off quickly now. The SPX is also up against Fib fan resistance now. But there is also a gap up at 1085 that might be calling for the SPX to shoot up and fill before getting down to business.
10:09, Here is a chart of the SPY, showing volume that has been steadily decreasing since 1044.50, not something one would expect to see for a sustained rally. The higher the price goes, the lower the number of dip buyers that are willing to jump in on the long side. Buy volume dropping with breadth decreasing is a good sign this will end very soon. This is the same pattern we have seen at every topping action in the last year.
Click here for a live, updated chart!!!
9:35, I added a micro count to the chart now that my confidence has improved enough to make this the most likely count. I really like the symmetry to the count. I am still very worried about breaking through the channel line, but am biting my tongue because of the count and the fact that breadth was only 2.35:1 advancers with low volume that has been declining all morning. I do not see much bullishness under these circumstances.

Click here for a live, updated chart!!!
6:46, The Head and Shoulder pattern survived the open, lets see if it plays out this morning, downside target would be 1039.


  1. 你所貫徹的形象,你喜愛它有多少百分比,你就幸福多少百分比..............................

  2. Your work is just awesome - please never stop

  3. getting warmer Mike, I see 1094 SPX, 109.7-8 for SPY

  4. I see an 'A' followed by a 'B' triangle followed by a five that is probably wave 'i' of C. Target for 'C' might be a double top at 1105, which is where C=1.618xA. Best date for the target is Feb 16th.

  5. Hey Mike. I've pretty well concluded that this is Minute [ii], and Minute [iii] has not even started yet. Minute [i] had the RSI trough in (v) because (v) was extended. The DJT, RUT, and NDX all support the Minute [ii] theory, especially the NDX and DJT. I spell it out in more detail on my blog and would invite your comments.

    Thanks, and good luck tomorrow.

  6. Excellent unbiased analysis as usual.