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Friday, February 12, 2010

I forgot to post this chart, and the link for it this morning, this is where the big battle continues, control of that Grey bullish fib fan, once the bulls lose that last line of the fan with a break decisively below it, next support will be all the way down around the 1000-1020 level.
This is the Russell, and I have a much different count going on here then in the SPX. I have tried to put this count to the SPX, but it just does not fit as well as the count I have on it now. The most striking thing about this chart is all of the bearish signals it is showing. A rising bearish wedge, with an overthrow at the close. All of the indicators way up into over-bought territory, and diverging with the last high of the day. The only thing I am not comfortable with about the count, is how the RSI bottomed where I have the end of the 1st wave down. Normally the RSI will reach its extremes at the end of iii of 3 wave, but there is no count I can come up with that would put the iii of 3, at the bottom extreme of the RSI.

After the close, That was a day filled up again with corrective waves following the impulse wave down at the open. After all that the SPX never did make a higher high, nor a lower low, so I am going to stick with the count that the 2nd finished up yesterday, and today's movements where part of another set of 1-2's, one degree lower, and as long as 1080.04 holds, that count stays valid. The Russell did make a higher high today, but I believe it is in a totally different count then the SPX and I will post that chart later today, it is much more bearish looking BTW.
Trading these corrective waves can drain one's account real fast, and I can not wait to get these behind us, so we can get back to business trading impulse waves. I have stayed short in Wall Street Survivor through this mess electing not to scalp interday. The odds being 50/50, with the rewards just not worth the risks, and as long as we keep having corrective waves to the upside, the odds of a real rally are small. (In real life, I am still long TZA.)
A true rally from 1044.50 would of took off by now, in impulsive waves to the upside, with strong breadth and volume to match. Mr. Market is just testing, or maybe teasing the bears right now, just as a wave 2 up should do. Just when the bears start to question their positions, and the bulls are screaming with joy and getting cocky, wave 2 will be nearing is top.
Breadth for the day ended at 1.15:1, advancers on average volume, after starting the day near 9:1, decliners.
The indicators ended the day mixed, but most are near neutral, neither overbought, or oversold and the VIX never did make a break-up out of its bullish, falling wedge.

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7:10, Here is a good look at the support the SPX has to break through on its way to making new lows. The first, and most important will be the trendline from previous lows this week, then like shooting ducks all in a row, it needs to break below each individual low, and then finally 1044.50, then we can confirm wave 3 of 3 is truly underway.

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6:54, The VIX opened up this morning, but at this time is still confined inside the falling bullish wedge, once this breaks out to the upside, we should be fully into the 3rd wave down.

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6:44, A gap down open, but this one is a little different, we have some volume to go with a breadth reading of 8.74:1, decliners. This is an across the board sell-off. My first target for some support would be trend line support at 1061. Fasten your seat-belts, today could get really wild.


  1. Thank you for all your work. I enjoy checking out your site....I wonder if you had a count for the US Dollar.

    Thank you

  2. A count I've seen elsewhere suggests that consideration should be given to this 'wave ii' in fact being a possible B wave - a flag flying half way down a pole. That is a distinct possibility and fits with the entire drop so far being a 'three'. There's a critical Bradley date on March 1st. Can the market do a C=A by then? Certainly needs to be considered.

  3. David, Since we already have three waves down, this also could be a "X" wave :)

  4. Yes, an X is possible. I still believe markets are at the early stages of a large ED which will run upwards into 2012/14 (probably 14) so a three style decline now would fit nicely. That would also allow for a further run upwards between summer 2010 and early summer 2011 to complete the first large ABC of the even larger ED. So we have a choice: either this drop is the start of a triangle OR its the first part of a larger corrective drop. Only time (and price)will tell. Excellent work as always Mike.