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Sunday, December 13, 2009

Week-end Outlook!!

This is my prefered count, the one that makes the most sense, and does not break rules and guidelines. Filled with a whole series of a-b-c's, just like I predicted two weeks ago, that the ending of this rally from the March lows would most likely end in a long drawn out series of a-b-c's. Enough to confuse even the experts because of the number of options it would present.
I have labeled the "B" wave, in green as a simple a-b-c pattern, not as a expanding triangle, a-b-c-d-e because some of the minor waves are impulsive, not corrective as a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern requires.
The biggest difference is that I believe the 1st and 2nd wave of "C" have already been completed as a-b-c counts, setting up the start of an Ending Diagonal. Leaving us now in the 3rd wave with the first minor wave "a" completed.
In the ES-Mini, the "B" wave clearly stands out as a simple a-b-c count, and gives a much clearer picture of the bounds the Ending Diagonal should respect.

This is the Big Picture, the triple zigzag is how I have chosen to label it, I have seen most of the other counts, and while I do not disagree with them, to me this whole rally from 666 has been nothing but simple a-b-c patterns one right after another, so I have went with the simplistic choice, that also in fits in with theory of Fractals, smaller patterns within a large pattern that duplicate themselves and since the major wave is an a-b-c, the minor waves should be labeled as a-b-c's.
The upside targets are in the 1120-1160 range depending upon the resistance of the upper trendline, if it holds, 1120-1300 should be the upper most range, but if it fails, the next area of trendline resistance would be up in the 1160 area. Also of note, should major wave "C" end up equaling the size of "A" ("A" =290 pts), then the upside target would be 1159. (869+290=1159)
Also, as in any ending pattern, it could truncate at any time!!!
On paper, I am very short-term bullish, but in real life I am bearish, to me what little upside there maybe available, it is not worth the risk of a major sell-off happening at any time, with-out warning.

4 comments:

  1. great series of charts and comments on why -

    looks like this christmas might also be "showtime"

    ;-) thanks!

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  2. Hey Col, great post! FWIW, I hope you are right. I think your E-mini observation is the strongest evidence to your call (and if there was a similar futures representation for the NYA, I bet it would be a similar pattern). So in this scenario, there is a clear lower low for C of Minor B, and 2 does not go past 1. *And* we have a nice definitive ending diagonal to finish out P2. I love it and hope it really does play out this way. Nice work man!!

    On paper, I am very short-term bullish, but in real life I am bearish, to me what little upside there maybe available, it is not worth the risk of a major sell-off happening at any time, with-out warning.

    EXACTLY! I love how in the CIL we have both been labeled as "bullish" ... LOL!!! Just because we acknowledge that the count makes a higher high does not make us bullish. I don't think we could find two bigger bears than us :). And in a way, I am *happy* to get one last move up. Not to be long, but to get a better deal on shorts :)

    Thanks man!!!

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  3. Hi Columbia,

    Your analysis is logical and methodical! Well done.

    Keep up the good work!

    Richard

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  4. I'm keeping mostly cash so when the break out occurs, I'm on it.... the bb's can only get soooo tight....

    ReplyDelete