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Sunday, December 20, 2009

Sunday updates

Most beautiful chart of the year, The US Dollar index, when it turned, it left no doubts that a bottom was put in, now has broken through three resistance levels on its way back up. Next resistance is up in the $79 area. The Dollar does look like it is getting to the point of relaxing, and correcting to the downside. The Full STO is overbought, and the RSI is getting close to overbought, but neither have shown signs yet of topping. It also seems the Dollar might be in a rising bearish wedge, something to watch, would be a break of the lower trendline of support signaling that a correction might be underway.
This is the daily chart of the SPX, with the Bollinger bands overlayed. All the price action of the last three weeks have been contained with-in a very narrow range while respecting the bands. Sooner or later we are going to have a breakout, and most likely it will be large. BEWARE of the first move, as it could turn out to be a head fake.
We are now closing in on five months of negative divergences on the indicators. The SPX making higher highs, while the indicators are making lower highs, BEARISH!!!
A little event took place on this chart, but one I believe is very important, a break of the trendline of support from the July, and November lows. There has been an on going pattern this year of the trendlines getting broke, then becoming resistance.
This is the Russell, it looks to be backtesting the trendline, that is now resistance and quite possibly will break above 613.71 in one last quick thrust, before reversing in a sell-off.

5 comments:

  1. Beautiful Col! Couldn't agree more :) Nice analysis bro!

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  2. This is one of the best blogs on EW.

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  3. Excellent job, great charts and great commentary as well...........let's see what the market makers (or manipulators) will try tomorrow and the rest of the week. The message though is clear: they may try to keep it up against all odds but the law of gravity is still valid.

    Thanks again!

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  4. Great analysis! Keep up the good work.

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  5. hopefully this mornings breakout is the head fake you were referring to

    i can't take much more of this

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