Out of all the indexes, I keep coming back to the Russell, as it has been the most predictable for the last week. This is the only index I have not had to change or move the counts around since the beginning of the rally. If this count holds out, we should be very close to topping out here in the next couple of trading days.
This is the Nikkei, one of the weaker indexes, and still fully contained in the short-term bearish fans.
The BKX, still has room to run to the upside before hitting trendline resistance, but in the same slow grinding motion that has gone on for most of February. The BKX has a lot of overhead resistance, but very little support from the fans. There is nothing from keeping it from dropping down to the $42 level at anytime.
So far, the bearish fib fans off of 1150 are acting as resistance, if we get a good sell-off, and the price action recaptures the older fib fans from the very top, things would really get bearish. There is support starting around the 1050 level from the first green bullish fan, but if it breaks below the last fan, down around 900-925, again, things turn very bearish.Over-all though, as of now, the SPX is closer to being bullish, then bearish, if it were to break above 1125, there would no longer be any resistance from the bearish fans, and would be free to run to the upside.
This is an upclose look at the chart, up above.
The SPX may "look" closer to being bullish than bearish but the majority of momentum iindicators are overbought or close to overbought. The best the bulls could expect is another failing rally early and then a decline.
ReplyDeleteOf course Monday is a Bradley Turn date and Friday was one of McHugh's Phi date turn dates. Let's not forget the lunar cycle...the new moon on the 14 was a bottom and the full moon due Sunday should be a top...so in fact Friday may have been a short term top of some sort.
ga, I just wanted to throw the bulls a bone,LOL!!!
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Mike, thanks for all your great work. I keep your charts on thru all the trading day. I trade the RUT (a 5 and/or a 15 min chart(s) would be great to have.............)
ReplyDeleteGoing back on your count though, don't you think this corrective is a bit too long in the tooth? particularly if you compare to the 1 and 2 after the initial AB........Also the MACD is all divergent way back from the (iii) of 3. Just a comment.....Great work !!
Donato, the MACD diverging all the way back to the iii of 3 count is a good thing, the RSI and MACD should peak on the iii if 3, then diverge afterwards. those indicators measure momentum, and momentum always should peak at that time.
ReplyDeleteMcHugh is showing a descending falling wedge pattern on the Dow and SPX charts that is complete and compelling. Then Friday's trade is all of a shorter term ascending bullish triangle that is complete.
ReplyDeleteBoth patterns suggest the next move is a 5th wave up to complete a wave 5 of 5 of 2. McHugh suggest this could run over 100+ points.
And why not? "They" have manipulated the markets up 22 out of the past 25 Mondays.
Just curious - so if this was to have been an ABC from the March 2009 low and we had now had the the A and B what are the odds we never get a C?
ReplyDeleteOr could this next leg up be the B then we get the C? Or will we never get a C and have to start a new count?
Thank you for your time - as I stated in previous posts I am new to this an am just looking for guidance from those who seem to know this best.
Thank you