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Thursday, February 10, 2011

Thursday Updates!!!

Yesterday I posted a chart of the Sensex, India's Stock Market, today, is a chart of EEM, which is for the MSCI Emerging Markets iShares. EEM, looks to have broke out of a really nice, and very well respected set of bullish channels. The odds are pretty good that EEM could be the main leader of any large scale sell-off. With India's, and the Brazilian markets cascading downwards it won't be long before the two drag the rest of the World along for a ride.
In a change of events, the only Index that is currently in the Green this morning is the Dow Transports, which also broke out of the bearish channel, but is still well below the level needed to confirm the uptrend under the Dow Theory.

The Dollar is one sick puppy and needs to breakout to the upside, other-wise the longer-term outlook continues to look bleak. If the Dollar does break below that lower trendline the odds really jump higher that we will be watching a very large sell-off. The Dollar NEEDS to break above the 20 day MA at $78.17 and falling fast, that has been resistance for the last month.

The "Canary in the Coal Mine"" chart is back, BKX, still has not broke above its April's high and is still riding the lowest, or least bullish Fib fan line after breaking out of the blue bearish fan in the $47 level. I still believe it will be Financials that lead any major sell-off.
Not much has changed on the Daily Fib fan chart, the SPX continues to move-up along the bullish fan line that is also acting as resistance. Heavy support does not even come into play until the SPX reaches down towards the 1275 level. Using JUST this chart, the SPX looks very bullish!!!

The VIX moved up and tested resistance of the 20 day MA, as long as the VIX continues making lower lows keeping the trend down. The Equity bears need the VIX to start working its way higher, breaking above resistance.

7:25, The SPX broke thru the lower Bollinger band this morning, then quickly recaptured it, normally that is a sign that the short-term trend will reverse, this time that change would be from bearish to bullish

Click here for a live and updated chart!!!
The SPX was close this morning to invalidating this count, the 4th wave came with-in 3 points of entering the 1st wave. This is a large retrace for a 4th wave(blue) on top of a short 3rd wave(blue) of only 30 points. The 1st wave(blue) is 33 points, larger then the 3rd. This means that the final 5th wave must be smaller then the 3rd and as momentum is waning, a 5th wave failure, or truncation would not be out of the question.

5 comments:

  1. TRANnies playing catch up - in a hurry. Guess they heard you.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3186525&cmd=show[s208191898]&disp=P

    Nice post.

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  2. The move down in TRAN look corrective now. Not impulse and I feel it will gain a new high.

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  3. It also look like a small inverse head and shoulders.

    ReplyDelete