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Monday, February 7, 2011

Monday, After the Close!!!

Here is an updated chart of TNX from this morning's post, it tagged the upper trendline of resistance. A break-out could be a very bullish, long-term development in Treasuries!!!
This is a look at the weekly chart of Light Sweet Crude Futures, sitting right on an important trendline with a weak sell signal on the Trendfinder. If /CL breaks down from here we could see a very large drop in Oil prices. Either way, Oil is due for a break-out.
Long-term the SPX is running out of room between the gray trend lines.
The SPX had a bullish day, and the 1-2 up count is in full force, with upside target in the 1342 area. Now that the meat of the wave 3 most likely finished today, I would expect to see a boring next couple of days as the SPX works on the 4th wave corrections. Indicators on the shorter-term charts have reached extremes and the up-coming corrections should relieve those over-bought conditions.Breadth finished the day at 2.14:1, advancers on another very light volume day, only 877M shares traded on the NYSE. This is below the levels we were seeing over the last couple of weeks indicating this rally is not as strong as previous rallies have been, waning momentum, and volume are signs of a coming top, unfortunately, they this can continue for awhile. If we were to see a very bullish day with high Breadth and Volume that immediately reverses down, that could be the sign of a top of some sort, as the remaining bears capitulated.
The Trend Finder II has been updated, with two minor changes.

5 comments:

  1. Vega - continued good job with your count. It's been working for awhile now.

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  2. $spx closed above the Bolinger Bands again today.
    Any chance of a good pull back from this level?

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  3. Mike

    Are you referring to Treasury yields breaking out? This would be bearish for price and probably a sign it is time to finally throw the towel in for a lot of obdurate equity bears. Volume is so lame as to be laughable but because the price is being driven by the futures markets on leverage it matters not to the masters of the universe.

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  4. My analysis indicates were are going higher. AUD is breaking out, EUR held key pivot, looking for S&P 1365 come March: http://marketletters.blogspot.com/

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  5. Now that the S&P600, S&P400, and S&P500 have all cleared the high on 1/15 on a closing basis, the trend signal using the Bollinger Bands and previous 5-day low is back to watching for a close below the previous 5-day low. Like I indicated in the comment several days ago this type of signal sees a fair amount of whipsaws but when the one that works comes around, there is usually a decent correction afterward. The system did indicate a BUY Re-entry after the market close on 1/27.

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