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Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Wednesday Updates, The Day Goldman Missed!!!

10:01, The SPX has made it down to test the lower channel line, a break here would become more bearish. The indicators are in over-sold territory on this 30 minute chart, suggesting that the sell-off is in its late stages.
9:46, The VIX is now up against resistance of the 20 day MA at the same time the RSI and STO have rolled over to a buy, upping the odds resistance will be broke and a test of the upper Bollinger band will occur. The VIX would still need to make a higher high above 18.03 to even put the downtrend in jeopardy of changing
8:24, The SPX still has a way to go, 16 points, before testing support of the 20 day MA at 1270.69, however, the RSI has made a lower low and is trending down after diverging, and the STO has rolled over to a sell, upping the odds that a test will take place.
BKX is now down 1.50%, and is solidly below the trendline of support, and did make a minor lower low, a break below 52.09 would be a major low, and confirm a new downtrend. Currently GS is down 2.70%. The bigger question is if BKX will lead the equities down, or is this just a short-term correction.
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7:59, The Russell is much closer to breaking the longer-term trendline of support then the SPX. A break here would be an early warning sign that the SPX is also in jeopardy of losing its support, and the uptrend. So far this morning the price action has been impulsively down, but we currently have only three waves, which can be a larger degree correction, the price action needs to carry thru and make a full five waves down.
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7:42, The SPX has moved down to some minor support, the bears need a clean break thru that yellow highlighted area that has multiple points of short-term support before even thinking the uptrend is in jeopardy of changing. Breadth is picking up for the bears, and is now at 3.53:1, decliners, this sell-off might have some legs to it, but it is still early on.
Never thought it was possible that Goldman Sachs would miss expectations. The miss pushed BKX down 0.96% and thru its trendline of support. The SPX also has broke thru its short-term trendline, in its first decent looking impulse wave down, taking out 1286.87 would eliminate a 1-2, 1-2 up count, however to even start thinking this sell-off has some legs to it, the SPX needs to start making lower lows, the first at 1280.47. Breadth is starting to pick-up this morning, and is now at 3:1, decliners, so far this is bearish, but still weak, the bears need to see this number up towards 5:1, minimally, to even have a chance to change the trend.
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