Breadth for the day was typical of a correction, closing at 2.24:1, on 1.2B shares traded on the NYSE. As long as advancing Breadth stays down at these low levels, odds stay with the bears, any breakout, with increasing Breadth would be VERY bad for the bears case.
Oil went crazy today with Light Sweet Crude Futures coming very close to making new highs. This Egypt mess is a large wild card right now, if things quiet down quickly, the bulls have a small chance, on the other hand, if things keep escalating as they have been, a 3 of 3 down is in the cards this week. Also of concern this afternoon is the number of shippers cancelling trips down the Suez Canal, this could be very bearish for Europe and would carry thru to the US markets quickly. The reason I mention this is because Technical Analysis can not take into account "Black Swan" events. We are over-bought long-term, but when you throw in unpredictable events the results seen in the Markets can get CRAZY!!!
The first level of support for the SPX is Friday's low, this in my opinion would really start an accelerated sell-off that would quickly challenge the previous low of 1271.26, breaking thru and taking out the important low at 1261.70. At this point in time, odds are definitely higher for a large move to the downside, compared to the same size move to the upside. If the SPX does stick around this level for more then more few hours, that would start giving odds back to the bulls, because if this a 1-2 down set-up, we need to have a very large move ASAP.
The Trend Finder II has been updated with two changes today. Any guesses?
-Trendlines: How a Straight Line on a Chart Helps You Identify the Trend