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Friday, January 21, 2011

Friday, After the Close, Dow Theory of Non-Confirmation Continues!!!

The Dow has been making new highs, while the Transports and been making lower lows, this is a bearish scenario under the Dow Theory, unless the Transports make a new high.
The Nasdaq 100 made new lows at the close today, and in doing so broke under the short-term channel line.
The Russell also was making lower lows today, closing very near its new low and breaking under support from the previous low back on the 9th of January.
A very mixed market today during OPEX Friday, with some indexes breaking down and making new short-term lows, others flat, as in the SPX, and large caps that were making new highs, this would be typical in a topping process and should be a warning that things are not healthy in the market place. This type of price action presently is bearish longer-term if the weak indexes cannot run-up and make new highs. The VIX also closed up 2.67% in the green.
Breadth for the day was flat, at only 1.10:1, advancers, on increased volume, 1.26B shares traded on the NYSE.
The Squiggles on the SPX looked all corrective today and I still have the 1-2 down in question marks until we do get a decent 3rd wave down started. Until then we still do not have a confirmed top in on the SPX, just increasing odds that a larger sell-off could occur.
Since it is Friday afternoon, I will keep it short and sweet, and will finish updating later this afternoon after lunch, and thru-out the week-end, Enjoy!!!


  1. I've seen your posts in the past about how you suspect this we are in a corrective move rather than a new bull market. Your insights about RSI not advancing to/near 90 except for 3rd (or 3rd or 3rd) waves makes sense. In that regard, you've shown charts indicating that we haven't seen RSI at those levels lately indicating that this is a corrective move and not a bull market.

    I was convinced until I saw another waver post a chart that does seem to show these high RSI levels during this move:

    Can you comment on this? Based on his chart and your analysis, it seems like his bull-market call could be correct.

  2. Scott, that was simple, he is using a short-time period on his RSI, a 5 week, I use a 14 week period, which is the standard.