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Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Wednesday, after the close!!!

The bulls definitely had the ball and ran hard with it today with buy volume accounting for a nice 92.65% of the total volume on the NYSE. Breadth closed way down from its extremes from this morning and closed at only 3.45:1, very strange because the SPX closed near its high of the day, but the numbers of advancing issues dropped way off from the lower price levels this morning.
If this is the 5th wave up, the bulls need to follow-thru and keep this rally rolling as there is still the possibility that the SPX is still tracing out a 4th wave and lower lows could be right around the corner. If the 4th wave is wrapped up, it would be a truly funky count right now and the over-all structure still looks incomplete for a 4th wave. Just from the look of the waves from the 1227 highs, it resembles more of a 2nd wave down, and not a traditional 4th wave. This does open the door for a VERY bullish 1-2, 1-2 up, that might be playing out. This would be the Uncle Ben's hyper-inflationary count that is a low probability option at this point. Just to give the bears a little hope, another very low probability count would be that the SPX is tracing out a 1-2 down from the 1227 highs.
The downtrend has been busted as the SPX has made some important higher highs, and the Russell did break above its November high today. The Trendfinder has the daily SPX still bearish with not much room left before going bullish. The Russell has been whip-sawing over the last week, but bullish today.
** I have been working hard on the Trendfinder and will start posting more indexes, and even individual stocks here very soon. All of the indicators and parameters have been set into one study now in ThinkorSwim so it is very easy to apply the study to any index or stock now. I am just working out which indexes/stocks to post, and how/where I would do it. The Trendfinder box on the right has been a pain in the butt to work with because different browsers interpret the HMTL code differently giving some users a disorganized box. If there is enough interest I might stat posting them into the "after the close" posts. If there are any stocks or indexes that interest you, please leave them in the comment section.


  1. Columbia

    You are one of the few who dont see 4th Wave done - Another very good trader I follow thinks we maybe still in W3 with the real 4th to come. If it is a 3 what would likely be a topping point? or do you see something different? Also - looking for a swing short on IWM - could you look at the chart - seems close to double top but also i see inv HS that would tgt 77-78 your thoughts?
    thanks for a great blog

  2. I think the 1,2 count down is actually the best count - it would fit with the technical backdrop, the COT reports and a number of other mkts. CRB index looks to be finishing a w2 up. If the dollar is in a w3 up at multiple degrees and commodities are about to come under serious pressure I cant see the seperation from the mkt.

  3. when spx weekly trend is up in trendfinder i don't think 1-2 count down will work out. 4th wave not complete is surely possible but it has upto middle of dec max to wrap it up.. look for 12 dec if that happens.

  4. Other indexes that would be helpful would be RUT (Russell 2000), NDX (Nasdaq 100), TLT (Long Bond), SSE (Shanghai Index), Silver. Thanks for the great work!

  5. According to cycles data bottom around Dec 22 then up cycle into March 2011. May align with 4th wave not complete!

  6. Michael: Thank you for your efforts and help. If you can also add some ETFs such as FAZ, FAS, TZA and others 3X, in bonds, fin, real est markets, it would be helpful and when time is right, we can all benefit from that. I also would like to see the counts/your thoughts on NFLX, CRM, AMZN and is 2000 once again. EWI or someone had thought that AMZN had finished 5 and was in downturn and boy we were all wrong! Your input would be quiet valuable here, I think! Thanks again.

  7. Wow, I am happy to see more people commenting on the fact that the 4th wave may not be finished up, I felt alone earlier today!!!
    BTW, all your suggestions are awesome, I have started another blog just/solely for the trendfinder, where it will be easy to post updates on. Hopefully, fingers crossed I can get ready for tomorrows close. here is a sneak peak of what it will look like. you might have to copy and paste?

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