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Thursday, December 23, 2010
11:02, I have been following this chart for two years, a 30 minute chart with the Bollinger bands over-laid on it, I cannot ever remember seeing them this tight before, with the RSI and STO in over-sold territory, odd are highest it will breakout to the upside, maybe for that final shotup before it quickly reverses into a larger downtrend. Large moves usually result when the Bollinger bands get tight.
The Nasdaq is showing a sell signal on the daily chart, IF the NDX does not rally from here the signal will be confirmed at the close.
BKX might be showing signs that it is starting to break down, this is a 60 minute chart and now all the indicators have rolled over to a sell from extreme over-bought territory.
Here is a chart I have not posted lately, the Daily Fib fan chart of the SPX, nothing has changed in the last month as the price continues to ride up the gray bullish fan line of support, this is another chart that will show that the SPX is breaking down when that support gives. There is a chunk of support from other bullish fan lines in the 1175-1225 area that the SPX must break-thru before it has any chance of testing the 1125 level.
The squiggles look like we are still working on a 4th wave, with still one more pop left for the 5th and final squiggle. The most important thing on this chart is not the count, but that lower channel line, a break below would be a great sign that this rally is breaking down. 1246.70, is the magic number, a break below this previous low would confirm that a sell-off is in the works as the SPX starts printing lower lows, until then , the SPX is still in a weak bullish mode making higher highs.
Copper is down 0.90% today, if it is leading, Copper could be the first to show a sell signal on the Trendfinder, with the major indexes soon following.
The RSI might be starting to roll over on the daily's, BTW, that is a 9 period RSI, it shows movements a little sooner, and also amplifies them a little more then the default 14 period does.