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Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Wednesday, After the Close!!!

Here is a really interesting new video and the chart that goes with it that I found on the Neo-wave web-site. Glenn has the market entering into an easier to forecast region, and still stands by his call for a test of the '09 lows, enjoy!!!
Click to hear this 10-minute interview with Glenn Neely, recorded in November 2010.
NEoWave 8-year forecast from 2004 through mid-2012
"In this brief interview, Glenn Neely offers insight into his 8-year forecast for the S&P 500, made in September 2004. Remarkably accurate, Glenn explains Wave development, addresses the predictability of the environment (then and now), and discusses the remaining 1 1/2 years for this forecast."

Wow, Today's price action seems very flat after yesterday's 25 point range. Volume even suffered with only 953M shares traded on the NYSE. Over-all nothing has changed since yesterday's posts, so there is not a whole lot to add today, as conditions remain the same. Odds are still heavily weighted to more short-term downside. On the counts, one thing to watch for would be how many waves down we get, seven waves down would most likely be corrective (a-b-c-x-a-b-c), and nine waves down would be impulsive(1-2-i-ii-iii-iv-3-4-5). Currently we were working on the 6th wave today. If after the next low(7 waves) the spx starts a very shallow corrective the resembles a 4th wave(8th wave), instead of an impulsive wave up, that would push the odds toward 9 waves, or the impulsive count. But if that does impulse up (after 7 waves) making higher highs, then we would know that the sell-off was corrective and the SPX was in a larger degree 4th wave.
Just to throw a large wrench in the spokes, Friday is OPEX, and around that time frame moves can be volatile and large as traders re-position themselves for the coming month.
The 1155 area keeps popping up as a great level for a bounce, but the SPX would first have to break below support of the 50 day MA to reach this 38% retracement level. 1155 also has double Fib fan support on the daily chart.
For now, any move up around the 1194 level, the previous lower low(the blue"C" or "i") would invalidate both short-term counts until we make at least one more lower low. The trend does remain down, and will so until the SPX starts printing higher highs.
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1 comment:

  1. Thanks Michael! Please keep us updated on when Neely updates his forecast. Your blog is fantastic!